Reposted by NOT MANY PEOPLE KNOW THAT
APRIL 6, 2021Tags: Australia
By Paul Homewood
The floods in Australia brought big news last month (click the link to watch the video):
The floods mainly affected NSW and SE Queensland. The video speaks of “less than 1% “ Probability of this amount of rainfall occurring. However, the BOM numbers do not support this claim.
In NSW, although it was the second wettest March, 1956 was considerably more humid. In addition, it was not particularly wet in February, so the soil would not have been saturated.
March is of course only a month. Last month the NSW fell 136mm, but that amount is not uncommon when all months are factored in. In fact, extreme months of rainfall seem to have been more common in the past:
The bill of materials posted a summary last week listing various daily and monthly records at some locations, but again only valid for March. None of this supports the claim of a 1 in 100 year event. Instead, it was just an unusual and localized event for the month of March.
As the video shows, Australia is a land of flood and drought:
I mentioned March 1956, but that year it barely stopped raining from February to May, resulting in the worst flooding in NSW, Victoria and South Australia since 1870. This was truly an epic event and has been accurately described as an occurrence of 1 in 100 years. This year’s floods are nowhere near 1956, as the following video clearly shows.
It’s 16 minutes long but I would highly recommend checking it out. Not only does it give an idea of how bad the flood was, but it also offers a glimpse into life in those days. Below is a short film that also shows how widespread the flood was.
Towards the end, you’ll see a reference to the 1870 floods which, by all accounts, were even worse.
The term 1 in 100 years is regularly misused these days and is always used to describe what is no more than usual weather events. Scientists who do this belittle the truly epic events of the past.