HadCRUT, Numbers Four And 5 – Watts Up With That?

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HadCRUT, Numbers 4 And 5 – Watts Up With That?

Guest contribution by Willis Eschenbach

The HadCRUT dataset is one of several major estimates of historical variation in global mean surface temperature. It’s kept by the good folks at the University of East Anglia, home of the Climategate scandal.

They update the HadCRUT data at regular intervals. You just did it again and moved from HadCRUT4 to HadCRUT5.

To check if you’ve followed the madness of the climate, here is a pop quiz. What did the new record do to the historic HadCRUT temperature trend?

• • It decreased the trend, or

• • Has it increased the trend?

Yes, you are right … it has fueled the trend. This shocks you as much as it does me, I can tell.

So … here is the old and the new record.

Figure 1. HadCRUT4 and HadCRUT5 temperature records. The yellow / black and blue / black lines are low smoothings of each data set.

Let’s take a closer look at the changes. Here are just the Lowess smoothings that give us a clear view of the underlying adjustments. For comparison, I’ve added the temperature of the Lower Troposphere Microwave Sound Unit (UAH MSU TLT) at the University of Alabama in Huntsville.

Figure 1. Lower smoothings of the HadCRUT4 and HadCRUT5 surface temperature records as well as the UAH MSU satellite temperature record for the lower troposphere. The yellow / black, blue / black and orange / black lines are low smoothings of each data set. The red / black line shows the adjustments made to the HadCRUT4 data set.

There were a few surprises for me. Typically, the adjustments are made to the older data and reflect, for example, changes in the time the data was observed or new missed older records that were added to the data set. In this case, the biggest adjustments are the latest data …

In the past, adjustments have tended to reduce the temperature drop from ~ 1942 to 1970. However, these adjustments have increased the waste.

Imagine that.

Anyway, this is the newest chapter in the famous “Can you keep up with the temperature adjustments” game. I don’t have big conclusions other than that at this rate the temperature trend will double by 2050, not because of CO2 but because of continued endless upward adjustments …

After voting today (no to tax hikes) the beautiful ex-fiancée and I spent the afternoon wandering the docks at Porto Bodega looking at a few boats that I’m very glad I don’t own . You and I were fishing out of this marina commercially, lots of great memories.

My best regards to all,

w.

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