Not many people know that
January 2, 2021
By Paul Homewood
The annual data for 2020 has now been published for CET, with an average temperature of 10.76 ° C.
No doubt we will get the usual hysteria from the Met Office about the “third warmest year in existence”, “nine of the ten warmest years since 1990”, blah, blah!
However, this will only be an attempt to cover up the most uncomfortable truth, namely that warming stopped in 2006. The current 10-year average clearly shows this.
We can get a clearer picture of this by increasing the period since 1991. The 10-year average rose slowly in the 1990s and early 2000s. However, they have gradually declined since then, having peaked for the 1997-06 period:
Which leads us all to wonder what the “normal” climate is like for England?
The Met Office would say this is the 30 year average, but this is just an artificial construct for convenience. The 10-year average for CET is currently 10.40 ° C, which is hardly above the 1991 to 2020 average of 10.25 ° C. The difference lies within a range of natural variations.
After all, the annual temperatures rose from 8.86 ° C in 2010 to 10.72 ° C in the following year, solely due to "weather fluctuations".
The following table, which shows the highest and lowest monthly average temperatures for each month since 1991, shows how different the English weather can be:
If the “hottest” months were all in the same year, the annual average would be 12.8 ° C. And if this also applies to the “coldest” months, the annual average would be 7.3 ° C.
The next graphic shows this area when the actual annual temperatures are superimposed:
While such a possibility is statistically extremely unlikely, I see no meteorological reason why this should not be possible.
In summary, the idea that there is a "normal" annual temperature or climate in England is unscientific. In fact, it is no more scientific than claiming that there is “normal” weather here.
What still dominates the English “climate” is the variability of the weather from day to day, from month to month and even from year to year. All underlying climate trends are drowned out in the noise.
According to CET, annual temperatures rose by around 0.7 ° C between the 1940s and 2000s. But how much of that was related to the underlying climatic conditions and how much was weather-related?
Perhaps the best clue we have is to compare the warmest years. While 2014 was the hottest with 10.95 ° C, 1949 was not far back with 10.65 ° C. Go further back and we see years like 1733, 1779 and 1834, all above 10.4C.
This suggests that most of the warming over the past three decades is related to weather rather than climate change.