Reposted by Not many people know this
FEBRUARY 20, 2021
By Paul Homewood
Stewgreen tracked down the NOAA Climate Disaster website, which the BBC used for its video yesterday.
Just looking at it it becomes clear that the whole thing is completely fraudulent. First a look at the map:
When a hurricane hits a populous stretch of coast that is almost always, it is inevitable that the losses will be great. Although last year has been a busy year for hurricanes, we know that the frequency of hurricanes in the US has not been uncommon over the past decade, and the long-term trend has been rather declining. (Though it’s worth noting that the 1980s and 90s were below average, making choosing 1980 as a start date statistically inappropriateness):
The vast majority of these erroneously labeled “climate” disasters are either tornadoes, hailstorms or storms (almost all thunderstorms / tornadoes).
Again, we know that tornado activity has decreased significantly since the 1970s. However, tornadoes and thunderstorms are expected to be far more catastrophic today than they were in the past.
The answer to this puzzle lies in how NOAA determines what a billion dollar disaster is. The key is this phrase:
The United States has experienced 285 weather and climate catastrophes since 1980 with total damage / costs reaching or exceeding $ 1 billion (including the 2020 CPI adjustment).
So you are right to allow inflation, but is that enough?
The simple truth is that Americans have a lot more “stuff” than they did in 1980. Bigger houses, more cars, the latest in technology, expensive furniture and clothing, and everything else.
When a house burns down, the cost of rebuilding and sharing content has risen by much more than inflation since 1980.
The same applies to the local infrastructure and services.
The best way to monitor this is by looking at GDP rather than CPI, which says $ 1 in 1980 is now worth $ 3.32:
However, GDP has grown from $ 2,857 billion in 1980 to $ 21,433 billion in 2019, which is 7.3 times that.
We can see the effects of rising prosperity better by looking at constant GDP adjusted for CPI:
This index of GDP, which measures real growth, increased from $ 6.5 trillion in 1980 to $ 18.3 trillion, almost tripling.
So if a billion dollar disaster in 1980 equals a 3 billion dollar disaster.
We can also look at the development of property prices. The chart below is deflated using the CPI and thus reflects real rather than monetary prices. It has increased from 81.78 to 134.88, a factor of 1.65:
Of the $ 22 billion catastrophes last year, supposedly a record, nine were less than $ 2 billion. There’s no doubt at all that none of them would have cost more than a billion if they had occurred in 1980.
We can actually make a direct comparison between the 1985 hurricane season and last year. Both had six hurricanes.
In 1985, only three of the hurricanes with a total cost of $ 9 billion are added to the list. This compares to all six from last year plus Tropical Storm Eta for a total price of $ 40.1. The average cost per hurricane has increased from $ 3 billion to $ 5.7 billion. This is strong evidence that increasing wealth is driving the increasing costs of disasters, not the effects of climate.