Guest contribution by Tony Brown,
The ozone hole is returning to both poles
A few years ago, in connection with a project I was carrying out, I asked the Max Planck Institute and the University of Cambridge – both experts in this field – whether it was possible that the Antarctic "ozone hole" – actually a "thinning" – previously "discovered" existed for the first time in 1957.
Prior to this date, the device did not exist in any convenient form that could measure the likely extent of a hole, if it existed. This is the official statement;
“The spring ozone hole in Antarctica is a new phenomenon that appeared in the early 1980s.
The observed average amount of ozone in September, October and November over the British Antarctic Survey Station in Halley, Antarctica, showed a significant decrease for the first time in the early 1980s compared to the previous data obtained from 1957. The ozone hole is formed every year when the total ozone over most of Antarctica decreases sharply (currently up to 60%) for a period of about three months (September to November) in the southern hemisphere in spring. The amounts of ozone in late summer (January-March) did not decrease as much in the 1980s and 1990s. "
Both organizations I contacted agreed that it was theoretically possible that the hole could have existed before 1957, but considered it unlikely as it has been proven that refrigerants and other man-made chemicals were causing the thinning and it must therefore be a current problem. since the circumstances that caused it did not exist in the past.
In 2019 there was a significant amount of press and government comment that the "hole" was "cure" as it was unusually small, allegedly due to actions taken in 1987 by global governments that signed the Montreal Protocol had.
“The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer is the pioneering multilateral environmental agreement that regulates the production and consumption of nearly 100 man-made chemicals known as Ozone Depleting Substances (ODS). When these chemicals are released into the atmosphere, they damage the stratospheric ozone layer, the earth's protective shield that protects people and the environment from the sun's harmful UV rays. The protocol, adopted on September 15, 1987, is to date the only UN treaty that has ever been ratified in every country in the world – in all 197 UN member states. "
A year later, however, there was this surprising announcement by the World Meteorological Organization, which took place on October 6, 2020.
"2020 Antarctic ozone hole is big and deep"
“There are big differences in the development of the ozone hole events per year. The 2020 ozone hole is similar to the one in 2018, which was also a fairly large hole, and is definitely in the upper part of the pack for the past fifteen years or so, "said Vincent-Henri Peuch, director of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service at ECMWF, in a press release.
“When sunlight returned to the South Pole in the past few weeks, we saw continued ozone depletion in the area. After the unusually small and short-lived ozone hole in 2019, which was caused by special meteorological conditions, we are registering a fairly large one again this year, which confirms that we have implemented the Montreal Protocol to ban the emission of chemicals that deplete the ozone layer lead, have to continue to enforce. ”
The Montreal Protocol prohibits the emission of chemicals that deplete the ozone layer. Since the ban on halogenated hydrocarbons, the ozone layer has slowly recovered. The data clearly shows a trend in the decreasing area of the ozone hole. "
The size of the 2019 hole is now viewed not as part of a welcome downward trend demonstrating the effectiveness of global action, but as an "unusual" event. The hole is expected to return to its "natural" state by mid-decades of this century. Data on the progression of the "hole" since 1979 can be seen on the left side of this link
The hole in the arctic ozone.
After doing further research, I find that earlier this year, according to Nature Magazine and Scientific American, the Arctic Hole was the largest ever recorded, exciting and worrying for scientists. It was powered by exceptionally cold winter temperatures. From "nature"
A rare hole in the ozone layer opens over the Arctic – and it's big. " (March 27, 2020)
“Cold temperatures and a strong polar eddy caused chemicals to gnaw at the protective ozone layer in the north.
A huge hole in the ozone layer – probably the largest ever recorded in the north – has opened in the sky over the Arctic. It competes with the better known Antarctic ozone hole that forms every year in the southern hemisphere.
Record-low ozone levels currently stretch across much of the Central Arctic and extend over an area roughly three times the size of Greenland (see “Opening the Arctic”). The hole is not a health hazard and is likely to break apart in the coming weeks. But it is an extraordinary atmospheric phenomenon that will go down in the record books.
“From my point of view, this is the first time that there is talk of a real ozone hole in the Arctic,” says Martin Dameris, atmospheric researcher at the German Aerospace Center in Oberpfaffenhofen.
"After almost a month over the Arctic, the largest ozone hole ever discovered over the North Pole has finally closed," reported researchers from the European Union's Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS).
"The northern hemisphere's unprecedented ozone hole in 2020 has come to an end," CAMS researchers tweeted on April 23.
The Montreal Protocol was seen as the global template for the Kyoto Protocol on CO2 emissions, which was adopted in 1997 and came into force in 2005, and the subsequent Paris Agreement. This worldwide attempt to contain CO2 emissions and limit the temperature rises to 1.5 ° C above the pre-industrial value. As with the ozone hole, CO2 emissions appear surprisingly robust, and a slowdown in the rate of increase after severely restricting human activity since the industrial revolution is difficult to see right now.
September 2020 411.29 ppm
September 2019 408.54 ppm
Updated October 6, 2020
From here there is a useful link called "Can we see a change in the record due to covid19? " It says that “the International Energy Agency expects global CO2 emissions to decrease by 8% this year. It is clear that in less than a year we cannot see such a global effect. "
Only time will tell whether man's guilt in these two important areas is greater or lesser than currently believed.
Tony Brown (Tonyb) October 2020