Guest “I lost track of how many things this guy got wrong” by David Middelton
Humans cause climate change: it has just been directly proven for the first time
by: David Yeomans
Posted: Apr 5, 2021 / 4:00 p.m. CDT / Updated: April 6, 2021 / 7:04 p.m. CDT
AUSTIN (KXAN) – While it is well known that man-made greenhouse gas emissions trap more heat at the Earth’s surface and cause global temperatures to rise, this has never been 100% proven by conclusive, direct, and observational data.
But that has now changed.
In a unique study, academic researchers teamed up with NASA scientists to quantify the direct impact of human activity on our climate system – and prove that human activity is responsible for recent warming trends.
Before the industrial revolution, the earth’s climate was in a relatively stable, harmonious stasis for a long time, in which thermal energy that enters the atmosphere corresponds to the energy that goes out. Note that the sun brings in incoming thermal energy and the earth itself gives out outgoing energy to maintain equilibrium.
There is a natural greenhouse effect caused by the aerosols and clouds in our atmosphere …
“Before the industrial revolution, the earth’s climate was in a relatively stable, harmonious stasis for a long time …”
Horst slate! Have you ever heard of the Little Ice Age?
Figure 1. CPS with historical climatic periods and neoglaciation (Grosjean et al., 2007)
Or maybe the 1970s?
Without the roughly 0.8 ° C warming since 1975, which supposedly cannot be explained by natural factors alone, we would still be waiting for The Ice Age Cometh!
Figure 2.Modeled human climate protection compared to three instrument recordings (for details see Terando)
Even though humans have been the main cause of warming since 1975, the fracking climate did so before we messed up the “stable, harmonious stasis”!
Figure 3. Northern Hemisphere HadCRUT4 temperature anomaly (° C) 1952-1976, wood for trees.
How about the Pleistocene? Have you ever heard of it?
Figure 4. Reconstruction of the late quaternary temperature for Central Greenland from the GISP1 ice core (after Alley, 2000).
Figure 5. CPS with historical climatic periods and neoglaciation (Grosjean et al., 2007), early Holocene ice extent map (Dyke et al., 2003) and height of the alpine tree line (Bohleber et al., 2021).
“There is a natural greenhouse effect caused by the aerosols and clouds in our atmosphere …”
Water vapor is a “greenhouse gas” … clouds are not water vapor.
Clouds are not water vapor. Water vapor is the gas state of H2O and is invisible.
West Texas A&M University
Aerosols do not cause a “greenhouse effect”.
Aerosols: tiny particles, big impact
Take a deep breath. Even if the air looks clear, it is almost certain that you are inhaling tens of millions of solid particles and droplets of liquid. These ubiquitous patches of matter are known as aerosols and are found in the air over oceans, deserts, mountains, forests, ice, and every ecosystem in between. They drift in the earth’s atmosphere from the stratosphere to the surface and have a size of a few nanometers – less than the width of the smallest viruses – up to several tens of micrometers – roughly the diameter of human hair. Despite their small size, they have a major impact on our climate and health.
Most of the aerosols – around 90 percent by mass – are of natural origin. Volcanoes, for example, throw huge columns of ash, as well as sulfur dioxide and other gases into the air, producing sulfates.
Aerosols and incident sunlight (direct effects)
The sun provides the energy that powers the Earth’s climate, but not all of the energy that reaches the top of the atmosphere makes it to the surface. This is because aerosols – and the clouds they sow – reflect around a quarter of the sun’s energy back into space.
In the first study of this type, aerosols were mentioned. Haven’t you read it
Changes in atmospheric composition, such as B. increasing greenhouse gases, cause an initial radiation imbalance in the climate system, which is quantified as instantaneous radiative forcing. This basic metric has not been directly observed worldwide, and previous estimates are from models. This is partly because current space-based instruments cannot distinguish instantaneous radiative forcing from the climate’s radiative response. We apply radiation nuclei to satellite observations to unravel these components and find that instantaneous radiative forcing of the entire sky increased by 0.53 ± 0.11 W / m2 from 2003 to 2018, explaining positive trends in the overall planetary radiation imbalance . This increase is due to a combination of increasing concentrations of well-mixed greenhouse gases and recent reductions in aerosol emissions. These results highlight clear fingerprints of anthropogenic activity in the Earth’s changing energy budget, which observations can demonstrate within 4 years.
Kramer et al., 2021
Willis discussed the paper in this WUWT post … Losing your balance. It’s interesting. It might even have some value … But this graph from Mr Yeomans’ article has no climatological value, even if it is correct …
Figure 6.Carbon dioxide (CO2) and temperature trends since 1880 (Climate Central)
Figure 7. “Something strange happened on the way to the Anthropocene.”
If the only difference between the Little Ice Age, the coldest climatic episode of the Holocene, is around 130 ppm CO2 … Then CO2 isn’t such a bad thing.
Alley, RB 2000. “The Cold Interval of the Younger Dryas as seen from Central Greenland.” Quaternary Science Reviews 19: 213-226.
P. Bohleber, M. Schwikowski, M. Stocker-Waldhuber et al. New evidence of glaciers for ice-free peaks during the life of the Tyrolean iceman. Sci Rep 10, 20513 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-77518-9
Dyke, AS, Moore, A., and L. Robertson. [computer file]. Deicing North America. Geological Survey of Canada open file 1547. Ottawa: Natural Resources Canada, 2003.
Grosjean, Martin, Suter, Peter, Trachsel, Mathias & Wanner, Heinz. (2007). “Ice prehistoric finds in the Swiss Alps reflect Holocene glacier fluctuations”. Journal of Quaternary Science. 22. 203 – 207. 10.1002 / jqs.1111.
Kaufman, D., McKay, N., Routson, C. et al. Holocene global mean surface temperature, a multi-method reconstruction approach. Sci data 7, 201 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-0530-7
MacFarling Meure, C., D. Etheridge, C. Trudinger, P. Steele, R. Langenfelds, T. van Ommen, A. Smith and J. Elkins. 2006. “The Law Dome CO2, CH4, and N2O ice core records extended to 2000 years of BP”. Geophysical Research Letters. 33, No. 14, L14810 10.1029 / 2006GL026152. LINK data
Monnin, E., et al. 2004. EPICA Dome C Ice Core High-resolution Holocene and transitional CO2 data.
IGBP-PAGES / World Data Center for Paleoclimatology. Data article series # 2004-055.
NOAA / NGDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder CO, USA.
Terando, A., Reidmiller, D., Hostetler, SW, Littell, JS, Beard, TD, Jr., Weiskopf, SR, Belnap, J. and Plumlee, GS, 2020, Using information from global climate models to inform policy making —The Role of the US Geological Survey: US Geological Survey 2020-1058 Open File Report, 25 pp.,