The week that was: 2020-10-31 (October 31, 2020)
Presented by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The science and environmental project
Quote of the week:: "Quantum theory delivers a lot, but hardly brings us close to the secrets of the old. I am definitely convinced that he does not roll the dice with the universe." Albert Einstein to Max Born (1926)
Number of week: 2%
By Ken Haapala, President of the Science and Environment Policy Project (SEPP)
Knew what The above quote shows the frustration Einstein had with quantum physics because of the inability to accurately predict what will happen in nature at the atomic and subatomic levels. For example, it is not possible to predict exactly what will happen to a photon when an excited molecule emits it. The photon can go in any direction.
We have built large industries in electronics and other fields on principles developed in quantum physics. These industries include transistors (including computer chips); Cell phones, laptops, tablets, etc .; Nuclear power; Health, magnetic resonance imaging, or MRI; Lasers for DVDs, scanners at the checkout, industrial metal cutting, eye surgery, etc.
The multi-billion dollar "climate science" industry, however, largely ignores quantum physics and the field of physics in which it is contained – atomic, molecular, and optical physics (AMO) – even though "climate science" relies on computer modeling for the computers what is required are transistors whose understanding is based on quantum physics.
Herein lies the “fatal flaw” of the climate science industry, led by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its supporters such as the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). They ignore decades of extensive research into the greenhouse effect by physicists and others who are not part of this facility.
Based on experiments from 1859 onwards, Irish physicist John Tyndall explained that certain gases absorb infrared radiation, which is longer than visible light and which travels from Earth into space. These gases keep the earth's night temperatures far higher than usual, protecting the land masses from extreme freezing temperatures at night. Without this effect it is doubtful that complex vegetative and animal life would exist on land. His calculations were refined, but Tyndall realized that water vapor was the main greenhouse gas. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is secondary.
Until the end of World War II, the Air Force was interested in how water vapor absorbed and emitted electromagnetic radiation. It funded a major research effort through the Air Force Geophysical Laboratories. A report from Ford Aerospace and Communications Corporation, Aeronutronic Division (as written in the document) (1982) on "Continuum Absorption by H2O". specified:
“Water vapor is responsible for much of the absorption in the lower atmosphere in the infrared, millimeter wave and microwave windows. Large fluctuations in air temperature and humidity lead to large fluctuations in the attenuation in these windows. Although the positions, intensities and widths of most of the significant H2O (absorption lines) are known, the absorption in the windows cannot be calculated precisely from theoretical considerations alone. Many instruments and complex systems such as thermal imagers, remote sensing systems, viewfinders, trackers, and laser communication systems are designed to operate in one or more atmospheric windows. Therefore, a good understanding of the nature of the continuum absorption and the ability to predict it is crucial. "
A 1946 report by the Columbia Radiation Laboratory of Columbia University, New York, dealt with "water vapor absorption of electromagnetic radiation in the centimeter wavelength range". Columbia University is now a center for carbon dioxide-induced warming alarmists who ignore previous research.
Those who claim meaning by declaring “Exxon Knew” or “Ford Knew” achieve little. What did you know Water vapor is an important greenhouse gas that causes the transmission of infrared energy into space. You can also explain: "The Irish Knew". See links under Communicate Better With The Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism ?, Communicate Better With The Public – Make Things Up, https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a112264.pdf and https: //journals.aps.org/pr/abstract/10.1103/PhysRev.70.300
What do we know? We know that the greenhouse effect occurs in the atmosphere and cannot be described by a few simple equations. As explained below, we know the CO2 absorption spectrum pretty well and know how much infrared energy is blocked by CO2 at all CO2 concentrations and altitudes. Contrary to what many “climate researchers” claim, all of climate science is not that well developed. As a result, we cannot simply model it, and long-term predictions that do not include measurements of the effects of changing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere are likely to be incorrect.
In the late 1960s, the Air Force Cambridge Research Laboratories (AFCRL) began funding a long-term database project to gain detailed knowledge of the infrared properties of the atmosphere known as HITRAN. HITRAN is an abbreviation for high-resolution database for transmission molecular absorption. HITRAN is a compilation of spectroscopic parameters used by various computer codes to predict and simulate the transmission and emission of light in the atmosphere.
"The HITRAN compilation and associated database HITEMP (high temperature spectroscopic absorption parameters) are developed and maintained in the Department of Atomic and Molecular Physics of the Harvard Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics under the direction of Dr. Laurence S. Rothman."
“Soon the goals of HITRAN expanded considerably. The spectral scope soon encompassed the microwave through the visible part of the electromagnetic spectrum. In terms of physics, this meant both pure rotation transitions and Ro-vibration (and even some transitions between different electronic states). Applications also went beyond the simple atmosphere, adding many molecules that were trace species in the atmosphere and pollutants in the troposphere. More recently, HITRAN has served the planetary atmosphere community. As a result, the transitions in the database have included more basic parameters, especially those that allow the simulation of collision broadening of spectral lines. "
“The current and planned remote sensing satellite missions also placed new demands on HITRAN in terms of precision and accuracy. Line positions and intensities are captured with unparalleled accuracy. "
This is probably the best database in the world on what is happening in the atmosphere, including changes in the existing greenhouse effect. It is being ignored by the IPCC, the USGCRP, and similar organizations that purportedly produce climate science and how changes in the greenhouse effect are changing the climate.
As discussed in previous TWTWs, AMO physicists William van Wijngaarden and William Happer (W&H) tried to publish a paper with this mixture of calculated and experimental data. Western science magazines have treated them as if they were the authors of a shocking 1920s novel that will scandalize the Puritan politicians in Boston and lead to the term banned in Boston. David Wojick writes in CFACT and presents the preprint.
John Kerry claimed that climate science is simple physics. The W&H paper on estimating the change in the greenhouse effect in the atmosphere due to the addition of carbon dioxide contains 15 figures, 5 tables and 92 equations, many of which require a mastery of integral calculus. If Kerry's version of climate science is simple physics, it doesn't involve the greenhouse effect.
Parts of the paper are presented in this TWTW and discussed further in the next TWTW. The summary says:
“The atmospheric temperatures and concentrations of the five most important greenhouse gases on earth, H2O, CO2, O3, N2O and CH4, control the cloud-free flow of heat radiation from the earth into space. Over 1/3 million lines with strengths (wavelengths) of only 10-27 cm (10 to minus 27th power) from the HITRAN database were used to assess the dependence of the drive on the gas concentrations. For a hypothetical, optically thin atmosphere in which the absorption bands are negligibly saturated or one type of greenhouse gas interferes with another, the forces per molecule are on the order of 10 to 22 W (10 to minus 22 power of W). for H2O, CO2, O3, N2O and CH4. For current atmospheric concentrations, the forces of the abundant greenhouse gases H2O and CO2 that occur per molecule are suppressed by four orders of magnitude. The forces of the less common greenhouse gases O3, N2O and CH4 are also suppressed, but much less so. For current concentrations, the forces per molecule are two to three orders of magnitude greater for O3, N2O and CH4 than those of H2O or CO2. By doubling the current concentrations of CO2, N2O or CH4, the forces are increased by a few percent. These forcing results are close to previously published values, although neither a CO2 nor an H2O continuum was used in the calculations. The change in surface temperature due to the doubling of CO2 is estimated taking into account the radiative convective equilibrium of the atmosphere as well as the water feedback for the cases of fixed absolute and relative humidity as well as the effect of using a pseudoadiabatic time-lapse rate to model the troposphere temperature. Satellite spectral measurements at different latitudes are in excellent quantitative agreement with the modeled intensities. "
The W&H paper deals with the five most important greenhouse gases that were examined from the point of view of a cloud-free atmosphere. Clouds reflect part of the radiation coming from the sun, but they also reduce the radiation emanating from the earth into space, especially for the greenhouse effect. Ideally, from the greenhouse perspective, the nighttime warming effect of clouds is eliminated and the greenhouse effect is considered alone.
In the current atmosphere, with a CO2 content of around 400 ppm (400 ppm), the influence of adding a CO2 molecule is "suppressed by four orders of magnitude," or about ten thousand of the influence of the first molecules. Both CO2 and water vapor are saturated with the language common to those who study this field. An increase in these gases has no significant effects on the earth's climate. Such an effect can be described by a logarithmic function, not its inverse, an exponential function that has been used in IPCC reports. The addition of CO2 into the atmosphere by humanity does not cause a "climate crisis".
For a doubling of CO2, W&H has three estimates of the effects of a doubling of CO2. For a fixed absolute humidity and a constant rate of decrease (temperature decrease with increasing altitude below the tropopause (where water from the atmosphere freezes)) the estimate is 1.4 K (ͦ C or 2.5 ͦ F). For a fixed relative humidity and a constant decay rate, the estimate is 2.3 K (ͦ C or 4.1 ͦ F), and for a fixed relative humidity and a pseudoadiabatic decay rate (condensation is removed immediately) the estimate is 2.2 ͦ K (ͦ C or 4) ͦ F) All of these estimates are below the mean estimate of 3.0 ͦ C used in IPCC reports.
One conclusion to be discussed further next week is:
“The most striking fact about radiation transfer in the earth's atmosphere is summarized in Figs. (Not shown here) Doubling the current concentrations of the greenhouse gases CO2, N2O and CH4 increases the forces for cloud-free parts of the atmosphere by a few percent. Table 3
shows that the forces are comparable both up in the atmosphere and in the tropopause
to those found by other groups. "
As Lindzen said, doubling CO2 will have little impact on the earth's climate. A few percent of the total energy flows onto the earth and into space. Again, the exponential functions used by the IPCC are pure fantasy. As will be discussed next week, halving the amount of CO2 present has little effect and the amount of time CO2 remains in the atmosphere is not particularly meaningful. The carbon dioxide capture is of little or no value. See links under Challenging Orthodoxy.
Accuracy of the new IPCC models: Dr. Patrick Frank is a research fellow at Stanford Synchrotron Radiation Lightsource / SLAC at Stanford University. According to its website, the National Accelerator Laboratory (SLAC) is a national laboratory with multiple programs dealing with border issues Photon science, Astrophysics, biochemistry, materials science, particle physics and accelerator research. "(Added bold)
Frank has written extensively about the accuracy or inaccuracy of the global climate models used by the IPCC. In WUWT he checks the latest models that are available to the public. In his conclusions, Frank states:
“Firstly, like their predecessors, CMIP6 models project air temperatures as a linear extrapolation of the drive.
Second, like their predecessors, CMIP6 climate models cause large simulation errors in the cloud fraction.
Third, like their predecessors, CMIP6 climate models produce LWCF errors that are vastly larger than the tiny annual increase in tropospheric forcing caused by greenhouse gas emissions.
Fourth, CMIP6 climate models, like their predecessors, generate uncertainties that are so large and immediate that the air temperatures cannot be reliably projected even after a year.
Fifthly, like their predecessors, CMIP6 climate models must have a resolution that is around 1000 times better in order to reliably record a CO2 signal.
Sixth, CMIP6 climate models, like their predecessors, generate physically meaningless air temperature projections.
Seventh, like their predecessors, CMIP6 climate models have no predictive value. "
Frank's first statement about the models undermines the models' credibility even before they are tested against physical evidence. Decades of experiments and now decades of atmospheric observations show that changes in atmospheric temperatures due to an increase in CO2 cannot be precisely described by a linear function, but require a logarithmic function. Hence, using these models to project or extrapolate is meaningless and the results should be ignored. See links under Challenging Orthodoxy and https://www-ssrl.slac.stanford.edu/content/about-ssrl/about-stanford-synchrotron-radiation-lightsource
Roger Revelle: Andy May also writes in WUWT and discusses the sad episode of political influence on science. Then-Vice President Al Gore's staff attempted to discredit a 1992 paper written by Roger Revelle (who later died), Chauncey Starr, and SEPP President S. Fred Singer. The Gore associate claimed Revelle, a former Al Gore teacher, was physically unable to co-author. Starr had notes of previous drafts with Revelle's handwritten changes. Singer later successfully sued but did not collect anything. Andy May gives us an example of how ready “saviors of the earth” are to stop the science that questions their cause. See link under Changing Orthodoxy.
A reporter's question: As described in her essay, Science and Politics, a reporter asked Judith Curry a question:
"I'm turning to scientists this week about the elections. What is your view of this? Which of the candidates has the best science and technology plan for you?"
Curry's answer began:
“I'm not happy with either the Democratic or Republican plans for science in America. Both sides seem to want to use and abuse science as an association to advance their political goals. Republicans seem to prefer to ignore science while Democrats choose science to advance their political agendas. "
No doubt many scientifically minded readers will take her entire answer. TWTW would make two small exceptions to the Republican plans. One exception is the appointment of David Legates as deputy assistant trade minister for environmental observation and forecasting at NOAA. As discussed in TWTW on Sept. 19, Legates has written over 100 articles on climate, precipitation and similar topics and openly questioned the rigor of the reports of the USGCRP, a supporter of the IPCC. With these organizations, claims have become more important than evidence to support them.
The second exception is the recent appointment of Ryan Maue as chief scientist at NOAA. He is an excellent weather modeler in the best sense of the word, evidence-based. With a few notable exceptions like the National Hurricane Center, NOAA's modeling is poor. The long term climate predictions including sea level rise etc are absurd. This includes projections of an exponential rise in sea levels. The recent shift towards naming meaningless, small storms in the middle of the Atlantic is another example of how far NOAA has come from its main mission, as stated on its website:
"To understand and predict changes in climate, weather, oceans and coastlines, share that knowledge and information with others, and maintain and manage coastal and marine ecosystems and resources."
The website also states:
“NOAA is an agency that enriches life through science. Our reach extends from the surface of the sun to the depths of the ocean floor as we work to educate the public about the changing environment.
“From daily weather forecasts, severe storm warnings and climate monitoring to fisheries management, coastal restoration and support for maritime trade, NOAA products and services support economic vitality and impact more than a third of America's gross domestic product. NOAA's dedicated scientists use cutting-edge research and high-tech tools to provide citizens, planners, emergency managers and other decision-makers with the reliable information they need, when they need it. "
However, sections of NOAA ignore the scientific method, which involves evaluating theories, hypotheses, and assumptions against all scientific evidence, not just the evidence supporting political desires.
Maue recognizes the importance of evidence. One example is its use of accumulated cyclonic energy (ACE), which expresses the energy of tropical cyclones over their lifetime. In general, storms are more important in the Pacific than in the Atlantic. According to these calculations, the total frequency and energy do not increase.
See links under Finding a Common Basis, https://www.noaa.gov/about-our-agency#:~:text=Our%20mission,and%20marine%20ecosystems%20and%20resources.&text=Dedicated%20to% 20the% 20understand% 20and% 20responsibility% 20of% 20the% 20environment.
NOAA & # 39; s Top Scientist? Almost amusingly, Ryan Maue is replacing a career bureaucrat at NOAA who was assistant administrator for oceanic and atmospheric research and acting chief scientist. His professional background was the practice of marine resource law. Some news organizations immediately identified him as NOAA's best scientist. This appears to be the Washington Press Corps' understanding of science. See links under Change in US Administrations and https://www.aspenideas.org/speakers/craig-mclean
Number of week: 2%. According to reports from W&H and others, it is worth repeating. A doubling of today's CO2 and the associated increase in water vapor will not reduce the infrared energy flowing from the surface into space by more than 2% and it can be much less. So there is no runaway greenhouse, no turning point, no climate crisis, etc.
Comment: Is the sun rising?
The sun, the sea and the European temperatures
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, October 28, 2020
“Even the idea of what causes what can still be won. In the article on European temperatures, they note that sun fluctuations directly affect European temperatures in only a few places, but they also state that they may affect ocean cycles which in turn have a large impact on temperatures, so this may be due to temperature is sun after all. "
Twitter: Double standards & advertising
By Donna Laframboise, Big Picture News, Oct 28, 2020
“Twitter makes billions on advertising. But restricts Trump tweets on the grounds that they could be misleading. "
(SEPP comment: Which politician does not lead astray?)
Suppression of scientific research
Academic Freedom? The Peter Ridd case is part of a much larger problem with Australian universities
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, October 27, 2020
Win! The Australian government is writing laws to protect people like Peter Ridd in universities
By Jo Nova, Your Blog, October 31, 2020
"The Australian government admits that Peter Ridd should never be fired for criticizing James Cook University standards."
Challenging Orthodoxy – NIPCC
Climate change covered II: Physics
Idso, Carter and Singer, lead authors / editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Climate change reconsidered II: Biological effects
Idso, Idso, Carter and Singer, Lead Authors / Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
Climate Change Covered II: Fossil Fuels
By multiple authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates and Singer eds., Non-Governmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
Why Scientists Disagree with Global Warming
The NIPCC Scientific Consensus Report
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter and S. Fred Singer, Non-Governmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), November 23, 2015
Nature, not human activity, rules the climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
Global Sea Level Rise: An Analysis of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Study indicates that CO2 no longer heats up
By David Wojick, CFACT, October 26, 2020
Link to the paper: Dependence of the earth's thermal radiation on the five most common greenhouse gases
By W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, submitted June 4, 2020
Link to the pre-release version: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03098.pdf
Roger Revelle – the background story of the father of atmospheric CO2 monitoring
By Andy May, WUWT, October 31, 2020
Meet the climatologists social media censors don't want you to know about
By Gregory Wrightstone, Daily Signal, Oct 27, 2020 (H / t Gordon Fulks)
By Pat Frank, WUWT, October 27, 2020
War on science
By Tony Heller, His Blog, October 26, 2020
Air pollution killed 500,000 newborns in 2019: global study
By Staff Writers, Washington (AFP) on October 21, 2020
Although not identified, possible link to the study: State of Global Air, 2020
By employees of the Health Effects Institute. The Global Burden of Disease project of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. 2020
file: /// C: /Users/Owner/Downloads/soga-2020-report-10-26_0.pdf
(SEPP Comment: As shown in Figure 3 in the report, high income areas have low mortality rates above PM2.5. In general, no types of fuels are discussed in the report other than "solid fuels for cooking".)
The report on climate change in Africa shows that the heat is increasing north and south and the Sahel is becoming more humid
Press release UN News, October 26, 2020
Link to the report: State of the climate in Africa, 2019
Climate change is increasingly threatening human health, food and water security and socio-economic development in Africa
By staff at the World Meteorological Organization, October 26, 2020
President Steinmeier: "Without people like Edenhofer, the Paris Agreement and the German Climate Agreement would not have been possible."
By employees of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, October 25, 2020 (H / t Dennis Ambler)
https://www.pik-potsdam.de/de/news/latest-news/president-steinmeier-201cwithout-people-like-edenhofer-the-paris-agreement-and-the-german-climate-deal-would- not possible. 201d
The decline in shellfish species on rocky coasts corresponds to climate-related changes
Two decades of data document a decline in mussels, barnacles and snails
A new study documents the decline of tidal species on Swan & # 39; s Island in the Gulf of Maine.
Press release, NAF, October 26, 2020
Link to paper: Decline of five tidal invertebrate species in the western North Atlantic over the past two decades
By Peter S. Petraitis and S. R. Dudgeon, Communication Biology, October 20, 2020
"The recruitment of mussels falls by 15.7% per year, the recruitment of barnacles by 5.0% per year, …"
"Due to climate change, the Gulf of Maine has recently warmed faster than 99.9% of the world's oceans …"
(SEPP Comment: With a decrease of 15.7% per year, the recruitment of mussels would be less than 20% of the original after ten years and less than 4% of the original after 20 years. Based on these numbers, no new mussels form? A decline also occurred in the 1950s. Given the clam harvest in Massachusetts, the claim is unlikely. Could the decline be due to overfishing and an increase in European green crabs, an invasive species associated with crashes in shellfish populations?)
Sending words to do the work of deeds
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, October 28, 2020
Inexplicable political promises
Renewable energies don't solve the problem. Admittedly, Harrabin
From Paul Homewood, not many people know, October 26, 2020
(SEPP Comment: For those who believe in fairy tales, but are they Walt Disney or Grimms?)
Where did the ozone go?
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, October 28, 2020
“When it was recently discovered that the hole was growing again, the immediate response was that we need to enforce the Montreal Protocol. However, it has been in force since 1987 and has been successfully enforced on a global level for decades by mutual consent. Some people asked a different question: what if we don't understand the atmosphere as well as we thought? "
Don't let it snow
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, October 28, 2020
“But as we have noticed, and will do, until it gets as boring as shoveling snow in February, a theory in real science lives or dies by its predictive power. If you say winter is going to go, it has to go or you are wrong. "
We could really always have Paris
By Christopher Horner, The Pipeline, October 23, 2020
Aussie PM is defying pressure to set a net zero 2050 climate target
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, October 28, 2020
Japan's climate-neutral promise looks like a load of hot air
By Philip Patrick, The Spectator, UK 28 October 2020 (H / t GWPF)
New Japanese Prime Minister pledges to fulfill China's Zero Carbon 2050 initiative
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, October 26, 2020
"My question, with a population density of 899 people per mile, where do you want to place the necessary infrastructure for renewable energy?"
(SEPP-Kommentar: Warum sollten körperliche Einschränkungen lange nach dem Tod eines Politikers große Versprechungen über Dinge stören?)
Änderung in den US-Verwaltungen
Chefwissenschaftler der NOAA entlassen
Von Paul Homewood, das wissen nicht viele, 30. Oktober 2020
"Craig McLean ist nicht der" Top Scientist ", wie in der Mail beschrieben. Er ist in der Tat ein Anwalt, der seit vielen Jahren administrative Funktionen bei der NOAA innehat. Als solcher hat er die politische Agenda von Obama und früheren Präsidenten umgesetzt. “
Der beste NOAA-Wissenschaftler wird von seiner Position entfernt, nachdem er neue von Trump ernannte Mitarbeiter darum gebeten hat Einhaltung der Integritätsrichtlinie der Agentur, die es verbietet, Forschungsdaten an die politische Agenda anzupassen
Von Karen Ruiz, Daily Mail, 29. Oktober 2020
(SEPP-Kommentar: Siehe Link direkt oben.)
Trump entfernt den Schutz für den Tongass-Wald und öffnet ihn für die Protokollierung
Von Rebecca Beitsch und Rachel Frazin, The Hill, 28. Oktober 2020
Probleme in der Orthodoxie
Peter Foster: Der solare Spinzyklus der IEA
Tut mir leid, die Welt wird auch 2030 noch überwiegend mit fossilen Brennstoffen betrieben
Von Peter Foster, Financial Post, Kanada, 21. Oktober 2020
„Laut IEA ist es jetzt an der Zeit, mehr Vertrauen in die Regierung zu setzen, wenn die Reaktion der Regierungen auf COVID ein globales Durcheinander war. "Ein Anstieg der gut konzipierten Energiepolitik ist erforderlich, um die Welt auf den Weg zu einem widerstandsfähigen Energiesystem zu bringen, das die Klimaziele erreichen kann." Aber schlechte Politik wird nicht durch positive Adjektive verbessert, und Wünsche sind keine Leistung. "
Japans klimaneutrales Versprechen sieht aus wie eine Ladung heißer Luft
Von Philip Patrick, The Spectator, Großbritannien, 28. Oktober 2020 (H / t GWPF)
Ich suche eine gemeinsame Basis
Wissenschaft und Politik
Von Judith Curry, Climate Etc. 26. Oktober 2020
Philip Cross: Die vernünftige Herangehensweise an den Klimawandel
Anpassung spielt eine entscheidende Rolle in jedem realistischen und ehrlichen Klimaplan
Von Philip Cross, Special für Financial Post, Financial Post (Kanada), 24. September 2020
Wissenschaft, Politik und Evidenz
Politikgestaltung in Krisenzeiten: Wie Vielfalt und Meinungsverschiedenheiten dazu beitragen können, die Politik der Expertenberatung zu steuern
Von Alfred Moore, BMJ (ehemals British Medical Journal), 26. Oktober 2020
Zusammenfassung von GWPF:
Antwort an die australische Bushfire Commission
Von Eric Worrall, WUWT, 30. Oktober 2020
DOE-Erfolge bringen die amerikanische Wirtschaft auf neue Höhen
Von Dan Brouillette, Real Clear Energy, 27. Oktober 2020
Dan Brouillette ist der US-Energieminister.
Der siegreiche neuseeländische Premierminister wird aufgefordert, Covid-19-Lektionen auf die Klimakrise anzuwenden
Von Eric Worrall, WUWT, 24. Oktober 2020
Rückblick auf aktuelle wissenschaftliche Artikel von CO2 Science
Der Einfluss von erhöhtem CO2 auf ein wichtiges Antioxidans in Salat
Shimomura, M., Yoshida, H., Fujiuchi, N., Ariizumi, T. Ezura, H. and Fukuda, N. 2020. Continuous blue lighting and elevated carbon dioxide concentration rapidly increase chlorogenic acid content in young lettuce plants. Scientia Horticulturae 272: 109550, doi.org/10.1016/j.scienta.2020.109550, Oct 30, 2020
“Consequently, in light of the above, it would appear that as the air’s CO2 concentration rises in the years and decades ahead, the chlorogenic acid content of lettuce will increase, producing more of this effective antioxidant for human consumption and health care. And that is good news worth reporting.”
The Response of Juvenile Pink Salmon to Ocean Acidification
Frommel, A.Y., Carless, J., Hunt, B.P.V. and Brauner, C.J. 2020. Physiological resilience of pink salmon to naturally occurring ocean acidification. Conservation Physiology 8, DOI: 10.1093/conphys/coaa059. Oct 28, 2020
“In considering all of the above, Frommel et al. write ‘these findings indicate that levels of CO2 up to 2000 µatm for two weeks at this life stage of pink salmon are not associated with physiological impairment as measured in this study and have only a small effect on simultaneous acute stressors,’ adding ‘pink salmon populations that experience high CO2 levels in their yearly migration may be pre-adapted to high CO2 levels.’”
Investigating Plant-herbivore Interactions Under Drought and Heat Stress
Xie, H., Shi, J., Shi, F., Xu, H., He, K. and Wang, Z. 2020. Aphid fecundity and defenses in wheat exposed to a combination of heat and drought stress. Journal of Experimental Botany 71: 2713-2722. 26. Oktober 2020
Models v. Observations
Great Britain September Mean Temperatures Cooling. Also: Models Suggest Harsh, Long Winter Ahead
By Kirye and Pierre Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 24, 2020
Measurement Issues — Surface
The War on Science
By Tony Heller, His blog, Oct 26, 2020
“’The algorithms are working as designed.’ – NOAA”
Was September 2020 the warmest September on record?
By David Whitehouse, GWPF, Oct 29, 2020
Astonishing cold and unusual early season snow…”Zeta” to make landfall later in southeastern Louisiana
Guest Post by Paul Dorian, Perspecta, Via GWPF, Oct 28, 2020
Frost, Record-Breaking Cold Temperatures, and Strange Weather Features
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Oct 25, 2020
“If you want to see an image that is a bit deceptive but a lot of fun, below is the current percentage of normal snowpack from the US Snotel network: TWO THOUSAND PERCENT OF NORMAL over NE Washington and nearly 1000% of normal over the north Cascades. Values that might cause inveterate skiers to run for their equipment! But this early in the season, such percentages mean little, as do the crazy low values we observed in late spring.”
When is the foggiest time of the year in the Northwest?
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Oct 29, 2020
“The clouds and storms have not moved in permanently, leaving periods of cloud-free conditions that allow good infrared cooling to space.”
What cold lizards in Miami can tell us about climate change resilience
News Release, Washington University in St. Louis, Oct 20, 2020 (H/t WUWT)
(SEPP Comment: Animals that have survived warming and cooling of the planet are more tolerant of temperature change than these researchers thought?)
Antarctica yields oldest fossils of giant birds with 21-foot wingspans
By Staff Writers, Berkeley CA (SPX), Oct 28, 2020
Link to paper: Earliest fossils of giant-sized bony-toothed birds (Aves: Pelagornithidae) from the Eocene of Seymour Island, Antarctica
By Peter A. Kloess, Ashley W. Poust & Thomas A. Stidham, Scientific Reports, Oct 26, 2020
EU report about vanishing beaches was alarmist and wrong, scientists say
By Staff, The Times, Oct 27, 2020
Link to paper: Sandy coastlines under threat of erosion
By Michalis I. Vousdoukas, et al. Nature Climate Change, March 20, 2020
Rebuttal: Sandy beaches can survive sea-level rise
By J. A. G. Cooper, Nature Climate Change, Oct 27, 2020
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
"Where's the sea ice?" Right where it was for most of the Holocene.
By David Middleton, WUWT, Oct 30, 2020
Where is the sea ice? 3 reasons the Arctic freeze is unseasonably late and why it matters
By Mark Serreze, US National Snow and Ice Data Center, The Conversation, Oct 28, 2020 (H/t WUWT)
See link immediately above.
3 More New Studies Show Modern Arctic Sea Ice Extent Is Greater Than Nearly Any Time In The Last 10,000 Years
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Oce 29, 2020
Link to one study: Deglacial to Holocene variability in surface water characteristics and major floods in the Beaufort Sea
By Junjie Wu, et al, Communications earth & Environment, Oct 2, 2020
Irregular appearances of glacial and interglacial climate states
By Staff Writers, Bremerhaven, Germany (SPX), Oct 28, 2020
Link to paper: Interglacials of the Quaternary defined by northern hemispheric land ice distribution outside of Greenland
By Peter Köhler & Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Nature Communications, Oct 12, 2020
The arrival of seabirds transformed the Falkland Islands 5,000 years ago
By Brooks Hays, Washington DC (UPI), Oct 23, 2020
Lost and found: Geologists ‘resurrect’ missing tectonic plate
Researchers locate long-debated plate in Canada using 3D mapping technology
News Release, NSF, Oct 27, 2020
Link to paper: Raising the Resurrection plate from an unfolded-slab plate tectonic reconstruction of northwestern North America since early Cenozoic time
By Spencer Fuston and Jonny Wu, GSA Bulletion, oct 19, 2020
The future is now: Long-term research shows ocean acidification ramping up on the Great Barrier Reef
News Release by Australian Institute of Marine Science, Oct 28, 2020 (H/t Bernie Kepshire)
Link to one paper: Progressive seawater acidification on the Great Barrier Reef continental shelf
By Katharina Fabricius, et al. Nature, Oct 27, 2020
Link to second paper: Shifts in coralline algae, macroalgae, and coral juveniles in the Great Barrier Reef associated with present‐day ocean acidification
By Joy Smith, et al. (some of the same authors as above) Global Change Biology, Feb 12, 2020
(SEPP Comment: As Janifer Marohasy has demonstrated with recent photos of “dying” sections of the reef, the announcements of death are premature.)
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Different type of photosynthesis may save crops from climate change
By Brooks Hays, Washington DC (UPI), Oct 23, 2020
Link to paper not given, Suggestion: Alternative CAM Modes Provide Environment-Specific Water-Saving Benefits in a Leaf Metabolic Model
By Nadine Töpfer, et al. The Plant Cell, Oct 21, 2020
BBC Still Don’t Understand Paris Agreement
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 24, 2020
“The BBC are much like the old Soviets – they lie so much about climate change that they end up believing their own lies:”
National Academy of Sciences Declares Global Warming Contributes Hot and Cold Severe Weather
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 29, 2020
(SEPP Comment: Language nonsense of the IPCC is being used by National Academy of Sciences. Medium confidence replaces inconclusive. How about medium unknown?)
BBC’s Roger Harrabin criticised for political activism ‘masquerading as science’
By Staff, GWPF, Oct 29, 2020
“Mallen Baker, the former co-chair of the Green Party, has criticised the BBC’s Roger Harrabin’s for “public policy activism masquerading as science” – pushing a position, while pretending to be reporting expert evidence.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
Aerial images detect and track food security threats for millions of African farmers
By Staff Writers, Palmira, Colombia (SPX), Oct 23, 2020
Link to paper: Detection of banana plants and their major diseases through aerial images and machine learning methods: A case study in DR Congo and Republic of Benin
By Michael Gomez Selvaraj, et al. ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, Nov 2020
Another Major Breakthrough For Solar Energy
By Alex Kimani, Oil Price.com, Oct 20, 2020
“The timing appears perfect, too, with solar tipped to dominate the global electricity scene over the next couple of decades.”
Bjorn Lomborg: Joe Biden’s US$2 trillion climate plan could fix it
By Bjorn Lomborg, New Zealand Herald, Oct 20, 2020
(SEPP Comment: In his email, Lomborg said: “One inexpensive idea in Biden’s $2 trillion climate plan could finally fix global warming.” That idea is more Research and Development into alternative energy sources. The Los Angeles Daily News got the emphasis correct, the New Zealand Herald did not.)
Ford, GM scientists knew in 1960s that emissions caused climate change: report
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Oct 26, 2020
Half-measures won’t save nature, scientists warn
By Marlowe Hood, Paris (AFP), Oct 22, 2020
(SEPP Comment: No link to study.)
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Henderson the climate king
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 28, 2020
“Oh well then. If ‘scientists say’ it must be OK to cause disaster for billions through reckless arrogance. Just ask Dr. Strangelove.”
Dealing with climate change requires more fight and less flight
By Dawn Stover, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Oct 26, 2020
(SEPP Comment: According to the website, for 75 years the group has used the Doomsday Clock predicting Nuclear Risk; now extended to Climate Change; Disruptive Technologies; COVID-19. As in the past, the Doomsday Clock is approaching midnight. Why believe it?)
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
‘Death sentence on nature’: MEPs accused of turning European agricultural policy into ‘extinction machine’
‘There are no reasons to spend a third of the EU budget on industrial agriculture which drives biodiversity loss and worsens the climate crisis,’ says critic
By Jane Dalton, Independent, Oct 23, 2020
Economic growth is bad for the climate, Europe’s Science Academies claim
By Staff, GWPF & The Daily Telegraph, Via GWPF, Oct 30, 2020
Die #ExxonKnew Lüge breitet sich auf Motor City aus
By David Middleton, WUWT, Oct 28, 2020
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
Sceptics with emissions
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 28, 2020
“It adds that for some reason ‘people in Southern Europe and Latin America are the most likely to see climate change as a serious threat’ and moreover that ‘education played a large role in shaping attitudes towards climate change, people with 16 or more years of education were more likely than those with 8 years of education to say climate change is a ‘very serious’ threat.’”
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Children for Propaganda
Greta Melts Down In Reaction To EU Parliament Vote In Favor Of CAP. “We Won’t Forget”!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 23, 2020
Communicating Better to the Public – Protest
Thousands of climate activists appeal to Brussels to withdraw farming policy
By Catherine Bennett, France 24, Oct 25, 2020 (H/t GWPF)
Extinction Rebellion doorstep David Attenborough after he criticises their extremism
The Staff, The Times, Via GWPF, Oct 27, 2020
Expanding the Orthodoxy
UN-linked plan charts US course to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050
By Rebecca Beitsch, The Hill, Oct 27, 2020
“A United Nations-linked initiative is offering what it bills as a possible road map for the U.S. to tackle climate change under a potential new administration.”
“The Zero Carbon Action Plan (ZCAP), crafted by roughly 100 individuals spanning academia and think tanks, would help the U.S. reach the goals of the Paris Climate Accord and hit net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.”
UN: Urgent climate action needed to prevent the Sahara from being greened
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 28, 2020
New website puts climate in your hands
By Staff Writers, Paris (ESA), Oct 22, 2020
Link to new ESA website
“From the vantage point of space, users can see for themselves how atmospheric greenhouse gases are rising, glaciers are retreating, and ice sheets are diminishing; and explore patterns of wildfires from the Arctic Circle, to the Amazon rainforest, and across the Australian bush.”
Questioning European Green
Suckered by Big Wind in the UK
By Rupert Darwall, Real Clear Energy, Oct 29, 2020
(SEPP Comment: Explains why replacing coal and gas power plants with solar and wind increases the likelihood of the grid failing.)
Questioning Green Elsewhere
The Myth of Glorious Renewables
By Vijay Jayaraj, WUWT, Oct 26, 2020
Link to UK study: The Costs of Offshore Wind Power: Blindness and Insight
By John Constable and Gordon Hughes, Briefings of Britain, Sep 21, 2020
What’s Wrong with Wind and Solar?
Video featuring Mark Mills, Prager U, Sep 14, 2020 (5.5 minutes) (H/t Paul deWitt)
Green Jobs? What About The Industries We Are Destroying?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 25, 2020
ANZ Bank Demands Carbon Divestment as a Condition of Business Loans
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 29, 2020
Major Hedge Fund Manager Demands Big Funds Force Companies to Act on Climate Change
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 25, 2020
The Political Games Continue
CFACT Challenges Joe Biden to “Spend a Month Without Fossil Fuels”
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 15, 2020
A Conservative Supreme Court Will be Better for Climate Action
By Charles Hernick, Real Clear Energy Oct 25, 2020
On Climate, Amy Coney Barrett Will Be Fair on the Law, and Science
By John Hart, C3, Oct 27, 2020
Barrett punts on climate, oil industry recusals in written responses
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Oct 21, 2020
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Wind PTC: Enough!
By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, Oct 26, 2020
(SEPP Comment: “Infant industry” tax credits have gone on for almost 30 years, illustrating how difficult it is to get rid of tax credits long after there is no justification for them. The industry would collapse without them, demonstrating how false the claims of politicians supporting the industry are.)
Subsidies are Blowing in the Wind
By Alan Moran, Quadrant, AU, Oct 29, 2020
“One of the few pure wind plays is Hepburn Wind. In 2020 the business earned $111.5 per MWh in energy revenue, 37 per cent of which came from the subsidy from generation certificates. This level of subsidy is seen elsewhere – the US subsidy for wind and solar is estimated at 50 per cent.”
(SEPP Comment: No link to the estimate. However, IEA’s calculations on the social cost of carbon are fiction.)
Energy Issues – Australia
Bargain! $2 billion in solar panels powers SA for whole hour on Sunday in Spring!
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 27, 2020
“The ABC claps and asks no hard questions like, how much will it cost? Will it really stop storms? How many degrees cooler will the world be? Are there cheaper ways to reduce CO2 emissions? Does reducing man-made CO2 even change atmospheric CO2 levels? Will we be able to measure the benefit of this ever by any means? Are the Chinese rolling on the floor laughing at our pagan stupidity?”
(SEPP Comment: Includes a graph of energy production by source in South Australia for Oct 11, 2020, another California Duck.)
Energy Issues — US
May America vote to ban fossil fuels?
By Lubos Motl, The Reference Frame, Oct 24, 2020
Democrats’ Energy Dilemma
By Joel Kotkin, Real Clear Energy, Oct 28, 2020
Maryland, North Carolina, Virginia partnering on offshore wind energy development
By Dominick Mastrangelo, The Hill, Oct 29, 2020
“Planners estimate the project will provide up to 86,000 jobs, $57 billion in investments and up to $25 billion in economic output in the next decade.”
(SEPP Comment: At no cost to the consumer or taxpayer?)
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Big Data Essential for Oil & Gas Industry to Become Cleaner and More Efficient
By Paul Steidler, Real Clear Energy,, Oct 26, 2020
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Brussels ‘won’t stand in the way’ of new nuclear plants, says EU climate chief
By Frédéric Simon, EURACTIV, Oct 26, 2020 (H/t GWPF)
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
The Futility of “Renewable” Energy in Two Easy Charts
By David Middleton, WUWT, Oct 29, 2020
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Geothermal energy is poised for a big breakout
“An engineering problem that, when solved, solves energy.”
By David Roberts, Vox, Oct 21, 2020 (H/t Bernie Kepshire)
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage
Analysis Suggests Elon Musk’s Vision Of A Battery-Powered Society Remains An Unworkable Fantasy
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 30, 2020
Designing batteries for easier recycling could avert a looming e-waste crisis
By Zheng Chen and Darren Tan, The Conservation, Via WUWT, Oct 25, 2020
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Reality check on the electric car
Guest post by Richard Fowler, CEO Howard Electric Cooperative, MO, WUWT, Oct 30, 2020
Common and unclean: electric cars with child labor in Africa
By Steve Milloy, Junk Science.com, Oct 19, 2020
(SEPP Comment: Photos of cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo,)
Battery Issues Continue To Plague Electric Cars…BMW Orders “Large-Scale” Recall Of Plugin Hybrids
Explosive car batteries? BMW recalls large number of electric hybrid cars
By A.R. Göhring (Translated by P. Gosselin), No Tricks Zone, Oct 27, 2020
CCS can rapidly reduce emissions in sectors that have few other options to decarbonize, EFI/Stanford
EFI, Stanford team release California carbon capture and storage action plan, News Release, Stanford University, Oct 22, 2020 (H/t WUWT)
Link to report: An Action Plan for Carbon Capture and Storage in California: Opportunities, Challenges, and Solutions
By Staff, : Energy Futures Initiative and Stanford University, Oct 25, 2020
Did you hear the one about California fighting wildfires by banning gasoline cars?
The governor’s solution is expensive and less effective than other approaches to climate change and wildfires.
By Bjorn Lomborg, Dallas News, Oct 1, 2020
Barriers and enablers for prescribed burns for wildfire management in California
By Rebecca K. Miller, Field and Mach, Nature Sustainability, Jan 20, 2020
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
If we paint all our cities white, will we get more snow?
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 24, 2020
Pandemic Is Ray of Light for Solar Industry
Heftier home electricity bills, outages and low interest rates are all helping residential solar companies sell their products to homeowners
By Jinjoo Lee, WSJ, Oct 28, 2020
TWTW Summary: Not considering equally sharing in the burden of maintaining a reliable system that operates when needed, the reporter writes:
“Between Covid-19 and natural disasters, Mother Nature threw Americans a curveball in 2020. Solar companies are hitting it out of the park.
“Solar panels and battery systems have renewed appeal for people spending far more time in their homes and less certain about the lights staying on. Meanwhile, interest rates have never been lower, making it cheaper for capital-intensive businesses such as Sunrun RUN -4.13% and Sunnova Energy International NOVA -5.87% to raise funds.
“The pandemic was initially disruptive as door-to-door marketing became much more difficult. Residential solar installations were down 23% sequentially in the second quarter, largely due to shelter-in-place orders that imposed restrictions on selling and installing systems, according to a quarterly report from the Solar Energy Industries Association and Wood Mackenzie.
“But the temporary setback was probably what the industry needed to speed up some much-needed changes. Both Sunrun and Sunnova noted in their most recent earnings calls that they had shifted sales to a digital model. That is probably positive in the long term because digital marketing is more cost efficient than going door to door, according to Sophie Karp, equity research analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets. Overhead costs, including those involved in customer acquisition, had been rising as a share of residential solar pricing over the years.
“Selling rooftop solar is also easier when potential customers are more aware of their rising electricity bills. Since the pandemic began earlier this year, Americans have had to shift work electricity usage to their homes. In August, residential retail sales of electricity rose 5.8% from a year earlier while the commercial and industrial sectors saw declines of 6.7% and 9.3%, respectively, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
“The sticker shock seems to have boosted web traffic to residential solar providers: Average monthly traffic surged 111% for Sunrun so far this year compared with 2019; Sunnova and Vivint Solar saw increases of 48% and 20%, respectively, according to data from SimilarWeb.
“And, while rising unemployment sparked delinquency concerns across the board, residential solar is somewhat shielded because most solar providers require customers’ FICO scores to be over 650, according to a recent report from BloombergNEF. Homeowners tend to give priority to solar payments because it is a product that saves them money, the report noted.
“Solar companies are seeing an opportunity to sell battery storage as an add-on to rooftop solar in places such as California, which is still seeing outages due to wildfires. In some cases, they are able to pitch their services to utilities as a grid-service provider—coordinating vast pools of rooftop solar and storage systems to help balance the grid. Sunrun said in its second-quarter earnings call that it had more than $50 million in awarded or advanced stages of such contracts.
“Despite the steep drop seen in the second quarter, BloombergNEF forecasts that residential solar installations will grow this year compared with 2019. ‘The low installation numbers (earlier in the pandemic) didn’t reflect the demand for solar; it was more a reflection of how permitting has slowed down,’ said Tara Narayanan, U.S. solar analyst at BNEF. ‘There’s actually a pretty strong backlog of projects that are awaiting permits, and we’re expecting to see a surge in 2021.’”
The article ends with how rosy solar power may be after the election.