Weekly Local weather and Vitality Information Roundup #430

Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #430

The week that was: 2020-11-21 (November 21, 2020)
Presented by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The science and environmental project

Quote of the week: “Everything we call real consists of things that cannot be seen as real. If quantum mechanics didn't shock you deeply, you haven't understood it yet. "- Niels Bohr (1885-1962)

Number of weeks: 75% and 145%


By Ken Haapala, President of the Science and Environment Policy Project (SEPP)

Greenhouse continuation: In the last few weeks, TWTW has described work by W. A. ​​van Wijngaarden and W. Happer (W & H) on the heat radiation of the five most common greenhouse gases. The most common greenhouse gas, water vapor, and the second most common carbon dioxide are extremely saturated. This means that a significant increase in the concentrations of these gases in the atmosphere would be required to have a significant impact on global temperatures. For carbon dioxide to have a significant impact on temperatures, more coal and oil would have to be burned than is known. (Methane clathrates on the continental shelf contain enough CH4 to provide 3,000 years of all energy for 2020.)

Howard Hayden, professor emeritus of physics, spent most of his research career studying accelerator-based atomic and molecular collisions and published his first paper on the subject in 1964. Hayden, director of SEPP, sent a working paper entitled “CO2 and Climate: A Tutorial. "Although his approach is slightly different, Hayden's article affirms W & H's findings: adding CO2 to today's atmosphere will not cause significant (or dangerous) warming.

Hayden asked W & H to calculate the greenhouse effects of an atmosphere with 50 ppm volume (ppmv). 100 ppmv, 200 ppmv, 400 ppmv (roughly today's atmosphere) and 800 ppmv. They responded promptly and Hayden clearly illustrated the results.

By explaining the impact of CO2 on the world today, Hayden eliminates many of the complications of climate, such as: B. Changes in natural influences that lead to ice ages, which are interrupted by short warm periods, changing sun, changing clouds and changing ocean currents, air circulation, etc. For the sake of argumentation, he assumes that we have solved the basic problems of fluid dynamics that we have not have.

He then goes to the problem physicists of the 19th century, why is the earth warmer than it should be? They concluded that something in the atmosphere is warming up by blocking some of the cooling. As mentioned in previous TWTWs, Irish physicist John Tyndall began experiments in 1859 describing the partial blockage of the cooling of the globe by so-called greenhouse gases (GHGs), the primary being water vapor. They block the cooling effect of planets. As Hayden writes:

“Since the earth can only give off heat from the sun through radiation – and it has to be infrared (IR) radiation – you need to find someone who is familiar with the interaction between IR and the molecules in the atmosphere. ”

Hayden then asks and then answers the basic question:

“Is CO2 a powerful greenhouse gas? The answer: It depends on."(The original is bold in italics.)

The answer depends on the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. The strength decreases with increasing concentration. Something like the acceleration of a car with no gears. It accelerates quickly at first, but when it reaches top speed, the acceleration slows down no matter how hard the driver pushes the gas blade to the ground. As the CO2 concentration increases, the influence of each molecule decreases.

“The lesson here is that CO2 in low concentrations is a very effective IR absorber and therefore a very effective greenhouse gas. By this we mean that the greenhouse effect increases significantly if a little more CO2 is added.

"At higher CO2 concentrations, adding more CO2 does little to increase the greenhouse effect, since most (not all) of the IR that CO2 can absorb is already absorbed."

When CO2 is no longer an effective IR absorber, the wavelengths are said to be saturated. Additional absorption requires absorption by other IR wavelengths, which are not as easily absorbed.

“In other words, CO2 is a powerful greenhouse gas in very low concentrations. At its current concentration, CO2 is a weak greenhouse gas. This information was there long before Al Gores An uncomfortable truthand long before the first evaluation report FAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

"To change a fashionable phrase: Wavelength matters. Any "climate discussion" that ignores the details of the spectrum is ignoring the relevant science. "(Original in bold italics.)

Hayden illustrates the calculations of the IR absorption properties with photographs of razor cutouts of graphs based on W&H calculations. A picture shows the IR emissions of the earth's surface at a certain temperature if the atmosphere were transparent, no greenhouse gases, no clouds and no fine particles (dust). A second picture shows the part of the emissions that is blocked by the atmosphere (greenhouse gases). A third image shows the IR emissions into space coming from the surface and the atmosphere.

It is important to know that a significant portion of IR emissions from the globe into space do not come from the surface, but from greenhouse gases in the upper atmosphere. Numerous internal processes such as evaporation (which cools the surface) and condensation (which transfers this heat to the atmosphere) are important, but ultimately the globe only gives off heat to space through infrared radiation.

Although not as accurate as the actual calculations, Hayden's pictures clearly show the changes in the IR absorption properties of CO2 as changes in CO2 concentrations. The pattern of atmospheric CO2 absorption from infrared radiation does not change significantly, but the frequency range (width) is slowly expanding. This shows the logarithmic relationships between CO2 and temperature increases. Based on calculations by W & H, Hayden developed a diagram of IR blocking by CO2. This graph shows the logarithmic relationship between the infrared radiation blocked in watts per square meter (W / m2) and the atmospheric CO2 concentration (ppmv). Some important points stand out:

First, the 50 ppmv IR block – only one eighth of the current CO2 concentration – is about 75% of the current amount of CO2 block, as mentioned above. Second, the current IR blocking is around 30 W / m2, only 20% of the total (150 W / m2), in accordance with the 20% figure given by Siegel (3) (given in the publication but not here). Third, the increase in blockage between 400 ppmv and its double at 800 ppmv is around 3 W / m2, which is roughly what the IPCC used in its third assessment report in 2001, and 3 .5 W / m2 as used in the present models. Nothing is controversial here.

In the consequences section, Hayden discusses the degree of correspondence between what he writes and what the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has reported. Hayden continues:

However, if the spectrum is not taken into account, it will lead to wrong conclusions. Likewise, failure to differentiate between the surface of the earth and the earth as a whole is a misunderstanding of what is happening.

To understand physics, we repeat that the solar radiation absorbed by the earth is exactly in equilibrium with the radiation emitted by the earth Earth as a wholee, namely 244 W / m². Increasing the CO2 concentration necessarily decreases the amount of IR that is emitted in the CO2 band and heats the surface somewhat. The heated surface emits more IR at all wavelengthsThis allows more IR to escape at other wavelengths (without CO2). In other words, if all other things stay the same, the earth will still emit 244 W / m2 averaged over the entire globe into space. In other words, the effective black body temperature of the earth (including the atmosphere) does not change … ”(Boldface Italics in the original.)

TWTW will continue to Hayden's article next week to include comments. The paper reaffirms the research showing that the relationship between CO2 and temperatures is logarithmic. Adding CO2 to the current atmosphere results in little warming, and capturing and sequestering carbon dioxide is an exercise of little value.

See www.energyadvocate.com “The Carbon-Climate Relationship: A Tutorial” and links under Challenging Orthodoxy.


Functional obsolescence: After reviewing the work of W & H and Hayden, TWTW searched for recent research from NASA on the role of CO2 in temperatures. The links went to the paper by Gavin Schmidt from 2010, now head of NASA-GISS (Goddard Institute of Space Studies) with the title “Measuring the Greenhouse Effect”. There is a diagram of the outgoing spectral radiation, measured at the top of the earth's atmosphere compared to blackbody emissions (no greenhouse gases). It is similar to that used by W&H and Hayden.

The report says:

“We find that water vapor is the dominant substance – responsible for around 50% of the absorption, clouds for around 25% – and CO2 for 20% of the effect. The rest consists of the other minor greenhouse gases, such as ozone and methane, and a small amount of particles in the air (dust and other “aerosols”). "

Then Schmidt's kicker comes:

"Given that CO2 plays such an important role in the natural greenhouse effect, it makes intuitive sense that changes in its concentration due to human activity can significantly increase the greenhouse effect. However, calculating the effects of a CO2 change is very different from calculating the current role in relation to water vapor and clouds. This is because these two other substances depend on temperatures and atmospheric circulation in a way that CO2 does not. For example, as the temperature rises, the maximum sustainable water vapor concentration increases by around 7% per degree Celsius. Clouds also depend on temperature, pressure, convection and the amount of water vapor. A change in CO2, which affects the greenhouse effect, also changes the water vapor and clouds. Therefore, the overall greenhouse effect after a change in CO2 must also take into account the resulting changes in the other components. If for example The CO2 concentrations are doubled, then the absorption would increase by 4 W / m2, but as soon as the water vapor and the clouds react, the absorption increases by almost 20 W / m2 – demonstrate this (at least in the GISS climate model) The “feedback” amplifies the effects of the initial radiative forcing through CO2 alone. Past climate data suggests that this also happens in the real world. (Bold added.)

As Hayden shows, the effect of adding a little CO2 to the atmosphere decreases with increasing concentration. How can it be that the addition of some CO2 to the atmosphere suddenly increases? In addition, the climate effect of adding CO2 is no more and no less than a certain increase in surface temperature. Any temperature rise for whatever reason should, according to Schmidt's argument, be amplified by the same factor of five. In other words, any temperature disturbance should turn into scorching heat.

It is very clear that modelers are failing to model clouds that NASA-GISS believes represent a positive greenhouse effect (which contributes to warming). Obviously, NASA-GISS is unaware that the past 40 years have made great strides in measuring the greenhouse effect and temperature trends in the atmosphere, mainly through satellites. What may have been an intuitive sense years ago may be out of date today. See links under Defense of Orthodoxy.


Seaweed: When reviewing a study on seaweed, CO2 Science finds:

“Seagrasses are important ecosystem engineers in marine environments and provide productive habitats for numerous species. They are also widespread in the world's oceans and span a significant number of thermal environments. As a result, researchers have long been interested in their response to projections of future climate change. "

Seagrass is especially valuable in temperate regions around the world, where it supports large numbers of grazing crustaceans that are an important part of the food chain. They thrive in soft seabed environments such as shallow bays and estuaries. These habitats include the west coast and Chesapeake Bay, the largest estuary in the United States.

In its review of studying seaweed in Puget Sound, Washington state and Chesapeake Bay, CO2 Science reported that the five scientists measured the growth performance and metabolic profile of two different populations in a range of five pCO2 levels above seawater pH levels examined from approximately 8.0 (ambient temperature) up to 6.0 (highly enriched with pCO2) over a year. (Note that alarmists would identify pH 6.0 as man-made acidification, although it does occur naturally.) CO2 Science explains:

“In describing their results, Zayas-Santiago et al. (the researchers) report that the two seagrass populations saw overall improvements in plant size, growth, and survival in response to CO2 enrichment. In addition, increased CO2 stimulated growth-related metabolites while suppressing the stress-related metabolites, indicating improved tolerance to high temperatures as well as improvements in growth.

"Regarding these important findings, the scientists say that their findings" suggest that seaweed populations react differently but overall positively to rising CO2 concentrations and create negative feedbacks on climate change (by binding increased amounts of carbon). "See links under Review of Latest Scientific Articles from CO2 Science


Insect apocalypse: Jim Steele writes on his website about the modern, gloomy fairy tale that is told to children:

The American Psychological Association reports that young people suffer from "chronic fear of the end of the environment." A recent national survey found that 43 percent of our youth feel hopeless because of “environmental anxiety”. Psychologists warn that such hopelessness leads to suicide, drug addiction, and antisocial behavior. Why such environmental fear? Their hopelessness is determined solely by media narratives. Young people lack the scientific knowledge, years of observation, and they still need to acquire the critical thinking skills necessary to recognize an ecosystem collapse. His (sic) headlines such as that of the Guardian, "Falling insect numbers threaten the collapse of nature," provoke paranoia that "insects are on the road to extinction and threaten a" catastrophic collapse of nature's ecosystems ".

Steele points out that with modern farming techniques like Bt corn, fewer insecticides are used and less land needs to be cultivated to feed the public in the US (except when unnecessary biofuels are used). See links under Better Communicating With The Public – Use Propaganda For Children


March: In 2006, British economist Nicholas Stern submitted a report to the UK government claiming that the future global cost of climate change will be far higher than the cost it incurs today. In it, he used completely unrealistic interest rates to calculate future costs and future benefits.

The United Nations IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4, 2007) incorrectly stated that greenhouse gases have been the main cause of warming since 1880, that the average northern hemisphere temperatures were higher than the Medieval Warm Period, and the effect of the urban heat island on world temperatures is negligible .

On this basis, the British government took the lead and passed the 2008 Climate Change Act. Now British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is leading the nation many do not want to be in. He has announced a ten-point program that includes a ban on the sale of vehicles running on petrol or diesel by 2030. There are many comments on this program. Some include:

“These far-reaching proposals are technically absurd, economically deceived and politically catastrophic. Does the Prime Minister have competent advisors? One wonders? "- Forum on Global Warming Policy

“The problem is the perverse goal that is at the center: the legally binding requirement set out in the Climate Protection Act to reduce CO2 emissions to zero by 2050.

“This is so poorly defined that the government's ten point plan is little more than a manifesto for the export of much of UK industry, food production and power generation.

"As long as the government hits the net zero target, we are doomed to pursue perverse policies that make the country poorer and do little or nothing to reduce global net carbon emissions." – Ross Clark, the spectator

"If the government was trying to harm the economy, they couldn't do better." Lord Lawson, Global Warming Policy Foundation

See links under Questioning Orthodoxy, Science, Politics and Evidence, Questioning Europe's Green and Energy Issues – Non-US.


Exaggerated Fires: That year the public was bombarded by the press over forest, prairie or other fires now referred to as forest fires. Politicians blame climate change. The biggest problem is that few have knowledge of history and the press no longer cares. Future policies will not improve as long as ignorance rules the day. See links under Science, Politics, and Evidence and Better Communicating with the Public – Make It Up.


Number of weeks: 75% and 145%. The Club of Rome, a well-funded private organization with great political influence, claimed for decades that its computer models had proven the world is about oil and natural gas. These calculated results were later shown to be a result of mathematical chaos, but not before President Carter believed it. Carter explains that the miracle fuel is coal. Of course, coal is now condemned, and natural gas has largely replaced coal in the US.

In Real Clear Energy, Rupert Darwall writes about the US as an energy exporter:

“America has increased its natural gas production by 75% since 2005 and its crude oil production by a spectacular 145% since 2008. The task of being the world's hydrocarbon superpower is a great strategic and economic sacrifice that no other country is making. "

The next few years will be interesting. See links under Change in US Administrations.


KNKX, James Madison and Mobs

James Madison, the lead author of the US Constitution, knew that all democracies had a serious vulnerability.

By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Nov 17, 2020


Suppression of scientific research

In the case of Peter Ridd, we will soon find out if academic freedom is important

By Janet Albrechtsen, The Australian, Via GWPF, November 16, 2020

Challenging Orthodoxy – NIPCC

Climate change covered II: Physics

Idso, Carter and Singer, lead authors / editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013

Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate change reconsidered II: Biological effects

Idso, Idso, Carter and Singer, Lead Authors / Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014

Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate Change Covered II: Fossil Fuels

By multiple authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates and Singer eds., Non-Governmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019

Free download:

Why Scientists Disagree with Global Warming

The NIPCC Scientific Consensus Report

By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter and S. Fred Singer, Non-Governmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), November 23, 2015

Free download:


Nature, not human activity, rules the climate

S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008

Global Sea Level Rise: An Analysis of the Data

By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019

Challenging Orthodoxy

Dependence of the earth's thermal radiation on the five most common greenhouse gases

By W. A. ​​van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, submitted June 4, 2020


Link to the pre-release version: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03098.pdf

The final game

By Joel Kotkin, Real Clear Energy, November 18, 2020


Boris & # 39; "Green Industrial Revolution" is forever economic standstill …

Editorial, GWPF, November 18, 2020

The ban on the sale of gasoline vehicles is a "colossal mistake".

By employees, GWPF, November 18, 2020

Link to the report: The Battery Car Delusion

By Gautam Kalghatgi, GWPF, 2020

Right to climate change on thin ice

By David Whitehouse, GWPF, Nov 19, 2020

"Another example of climate journalists and researchers who don't look closely at the data they report."

After all, not that easy

By Paul Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 18, 2020

(SEPP comment: Description of the work by van Wijngaarden and Happer

Defend Orthodoxy

Measurement of the greenhouse effect

By Gavin Schmidt, Science Briefs, NASA-GISS, October 2010, accessed November 19, 2020


Link to: CO2: The thermostat that regulates the earth's temperature

By Andrew Lacis, Science Briefs, NASA-GISS, October 2010, accessed November 19, 2020


Link to the paper: Atmospheric CO2: Main controller for controlling the earth's temperature

By Andrew A. Lacis, David Rind, Gavin A. Schmidt, Reto A. Ruedy, Science, October 15, 2010


"A study by GISS climate researchers recently published in the journal Science shows that atmospheric CO2 acts as a thermostat to control the earth's temperature."

The carbon cycle

By NASA staff, accessed November 19, 2020


“In the long term, the carbon cycle seems to maintain a balance that prevents all of the earth's carbon from entering the atmosphere (as is the case with Venus) or from being stored entirely in rocks. This balance helps keep the temperature of the earth relatively stable, like a thermostat. "

Boris & # 39; 10-point climate plan

From Paul Homewood, not many people know, November 18, 2020

"And all of this has been inevitable since the Climate Change Act was passed in 2008."

Questioning Orthodoxy

Surprise: the "smartest" people are actually painfully stupid

By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, November 17, 2020


Bad rainforests

By Paul Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 18, 2020

"The article cites two institutes (the Evandro Chagas Institute in Belém and the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation) and a scientist, Adalberto Luís Val from the National Institute for Amazon Research (INPA) in Manaus, all in Brazil threats severe:" 220 different types of Viruses in the Amazon, of which 37 can cause disease in humans and 15 have the potential to cause epidemics "from" various varieties of encephalitis "to" West Nile fever and Rocio, a Brazilian virus from "the same family that Yellow fever and West Nile produced. "

Bradley-Rob, not Ray, takes notice on Twitter

By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Nov 17, 2020

This time it's different

By Paul Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 18, 2020

To Paris!

Submit the Paris Climate Agreement to the Senate – so they can shoot it down

By Patrick Michaels, Washington Examiner, November 19, 2020


Change in US administrations

Joe Biden's Net-Zero is not normal

By Rupert Darwall, Real Clear Energy, November 17, 2020


The climate fraud: what we're up to

By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, November 19, 2020


Scientists question the links between climate and extreme weather to monitor critical program: report

By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Nov 16, 2020


Possible, likely or unlikely? Climate policy in a Biden administration

By James W. Noe and Meghan E. Smith, Real Clear Energy, November 16, 2020


Social benefits of carbon dioxide

Another proof that the CO2 fertilization effect is currently increasing global vegetative productivity

By Paul Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 18, 2020

(SEPP Comment: Repeat an important contribution from CO2 Science.)

Problems in Orthodoxy

China has started to step on the climate crisis – Guardian

From Paul Homewood, not many people know, November 20, 2020

“But we have to remember here that Ma Jun is not the brave activist the Guardian painted. He heads the Institute for Public Affairs and the Environment (IPE), a not-for-profit environmental research organization based in Beijing.

“But like Greenpeace China and other such organizations, the IPE has little real independence and is largely a tool of the Chinese government. Should Ma Jun ever deviate from government dictates, he would quickly disappear.

"As the IPE website shows, its partner organizations include four government agencies:"

Vijay Jayaraj: China and India are expanding their coal ambitions

By Vijay Jayaraj, GWPF, November 11, 2020

(SEPP comment: The graphic in the article on building coal-fired power plants contradicts claims in the Guardian, link immediately above.)

EU heads of state and government can delay groundbreaking decision on the 2030 climate target

By Nikos Chrysoloras and Ewa Krukowska, Bloomberg Green, November 18, 2020 (H / t GWPF)


I'm looking for common ground

The hustle and bustle of climate change

John Stossel: In 50 years of reporting fears, only COVID has proven true

By John Stossel, World Net Daly, November 17, 2020 (H / t Bernie Kepshire)

Science, Politics and Evidence

How much damage can America do with its energy plan?

By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, November 14, 2020


"I'm old enough to remember when leaders thought it was their job to help people achieve prosperity." Now it seems that we will shortly have a president and a bureaucracy determined to impoverish the American people and undermine their security by making less energy available and increasing the price. And all to achieve absolutely nothing. "

No Home Treatment For COVID? Here it is

Dr. Jane Orient provides simple guidance that your government will not want to give

By WND Staff, World Net Daily, Nov 17, 2020 (H / t Bernie Kepshire)

The total failure of another bushfire panel

By Roger Underwood, Quadrant, November 19, 2020

“Then I saw the Commission's mandate. My heart sank on my boots. Diese waren eindeutig darauf ausgelegt, dem Premierminister und den staatlichen Buschfeuergerichten eine Möglichkeit zu bieten, sich der Rechenschaftspflicht zu entziehen. Der Fokus würde auf Prozessen liegen, nicht auf Ergebnissen, auf Verwaltung, nicht auf Operationen, auf Reaktion, nicht auf Schadensbegrenzung. "

COVID-Sperren hatten keinen Einfluss auf das atmosphärische CO2

Von Tony Heller, Sein Blog, 18. November 2020


Mach dich wieder an die Arbeit – der Planet braucht dich!

Von Paul Homewood, das wissen nicht viele, 16. November 2020

"Sie werden nicht glücklich sein, bis wir wieder im dunklen Zeitalter sind, ohne Technologie und ohne Leben."

Editorial: Boris Johnson riskiert eine falsche Wendung

Von Mitarbeitern, Daily Mail, Via GWPF, 18. November 2020

Rückblick auf aktuelle wissenschaftliche Artikel von CO2 Science

Die Auswirkungen von CO2 und Wasserstress auf Paprika

Fan, X., Cao, X., Zhou, H., Hao, L., Dong, W., He, C., Xu, M., Wu, H., Wang, L., Chang, Z. und Zheng, Y. 2020. Kohlendioxid-Düngungseffekt auf das Pflanzenwachstum unter Bodenwasserstress ist mit Veränderungen der stomatalen Eigenschaften, der Blatt-Photosynthese und des Blattstickstoffs von Paprika (Capsicum annuum L.) verbunden. Environmental and Experimental Botany 179: 104203, doi.org/10.1016/j.envexpbot.2020.104203. 20th November 2020


Die positive Reaktion zweier Seegraspopulationen auf die CO2-Anreicherung

Zayas-Santiago, C., Rivas-Ubach, A., Kuo, L.-J., Ward, N.D. und Zimmerman, R.C. 2020. Die Stoffwechselprofilierung zeigt biochemische Wege auf, die für die Reaktion von Seegras auf erhöhtes CO2 und erhöhte Temperatur verantwortlich sind. Scientific Reports 10: 4693. 18. November 2020


Die Wachstumsreaktion von Mais auf CO2 über zwei Generationen hinweg

Khan, I., Vanaja, M., Sathish, P. und Vagheera, P. 2020. Einfluss von erhöhtem CO2 auf zwei aufeinanderfolgende Generationen von auf CO2 ansprechendem Maisgenotyp. Climate Dynamics 44: 3469 & ndash; 3479. 16. November 2020


Daraus lässt sich schließen, dass die vielen Vorteile der atmosphärischen CO2-Anreicherung, die in Tausenden von Experimenten mit Pflanzen der ersten Generation beobachtet wurden, die tatsächlichen Auswirkungen dieses wohlwollenden Gases, die sich über Generationen hinweg zu verstärken scheinen, stark unterschätzen.

Modelle v. Beobachtungen

Unsichere Gewissheit: Deutschlands Potsdamer Klimainstitut nach einjähriger El-Nino-Prognose-Modellflops gedemütigt

Von P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, 15. November 2020

Uncertain Certainty: Germany’s Potsdam Climate Institute Humiliated After One-Year El Nino Forecast Model Flops

„Prof. Hans-Joachim (John) Schellnhuber, emeritierter Direktor von PIK, erklärte: "Diese clevere Kombination aus Messdaten und Mathematik gibt uns einzigartige Einblicke – und wir stellen diese den Betroffenen zur Verfügung."

Eine Fernverbindung: Das polare Klima beeinflusst die Passatwindstärke in den Tropen

Pressemitteilung der Universität von Hawaii in Manoa, 20. November 2020 (H / t Bernie Kepshire)


Link zum Papier: Walker-Zirkulationsreaktion auf extratropischen Strahlungsantrieb

Von Sarah M. Kang et al. Science Advances, Nov 20, 2020


Model Issues

A sweeping climate model of the Red Sea

News Release, King Abdullah University of Science & Technology (KAUST), Nov 16, 2020 (H/t WUWT)


Measurement Issues — Surface

A blast from the past

By Paul Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 18, 2020

A blast from the past

2 More Studies Affirm A Glaring Lack Of Correlation Between CO2 And Temperature

By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Nov 16, 2020

2 More Studies Affirm A Glaring Lack Of Correlation Between CO2 And Temperature

Link to one study: Lake Heimtjønna at Dovre, Mid-Norway, reveals remarkable late-glacial and Holocene sedimentary environments and the early establishment of spruce (Picea abies), alder (Alnus cf. incana), and alpine plants with present centric distributions

By Aage Paus, Quaternary International, Sep 8, 2020


GHCN V3 Unadjusted Data Shows Casa Blanca, Cuba Had A Cooling Trend Since 1880

By Kirye, Tony Heller’s Blog, Nov 19, 2020


Changing Weather

Current Decade Globally Warmer Than Previous Decade – Due To Powerful Natural Oceanic Cycles, Not CO2

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Nov 18, 2020

Current Decade Globally Warmer Than Previous Decade – Due To Powerful Natural Oceanic Cycles, Not CO2

The Best Early Snow in Years

By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Nov 19, 2020


“Amazing.  The entire Northwest is not only above normal, but WAY about normal, like 441% of normal in the Olympics.  The kind of map that skiers and water managers like to see.”

Cooling Planet: NASA Projects Deep La Niña Event, Peak Temperature Deviation Up To -3°C!

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Nov 14, 2020

Cooling Planet: NASA Projects Deep La Niña Event, Peak Temperature Deviation Up To -3°C!

(SEPP Comment: The peak may be from one model that significantly deviates from the bulk of the projections.)

Changing Seas

“Scientists Say”

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Nov 17, 2020


Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice

Strange sea ice pattern over Hudson Bay as winds blow polar bears offshore

By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Nov 16, 2020

Strange sea ice pattern over Hudson Bay as winds blow polar bears offshore

There’s a lot of ice in the Arctic (Part II)

By Paul Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 18, 2020

There’s a lot of ice in the Arctic (Part II)

Good news: Gulf of Boothia and M’Clintock Channel polar bear survey results

By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Nov 17, 2020

Good news: Gulf of Boothia and M’Clintock Channel polar bear survey results

Lowering Standards

Hydrogen, WSJ Spin

By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Nov 20, 2020

Hydrogen, WSJ Spin

Who Wrote The Climate Assembly Report?

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 15, 2020

Who Wrote The Climate Assembly Report?

Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?

Slower decay of landfalling Hurricanes in a warmer world — really?

By Frank Bosse, Climate Etc. Nov 17, 2020

(SEPP Comment: More on the “peer reviewed” science published in Nature.)

Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.

Neues Filmmaterial enthüllt Netflix-gefälschte Walross-Klimatodesfälle

By Staff, GWPF, Nov 19, 2020

New footage reveals Netflix faked walrus climate deaths

Greenland Meltdown Hoax

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 13, 2020

Greenland Meltdown Hoax

“worst fire season on record.”

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Nov 14, 2020


New Video: Worst Junk Science Season On Record

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Nov 114, 2020


All for a good cause

By Paul Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 18, 2020

All for a good cause

Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda

Tesla Supercharging now more expensive than petrol refuelling

By Toby Hagon, Whichcar, Nov 13, 2020


“But it doesn’t excuse the blatantly incorrect figures on the Tesla website in claiming Supercharging is cheaper than paying for petrol.”

Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children

Children and the Insect Apocalypse

By Jim Steele, Landscapes and Cycles, Accessed Nov 21, 2020


Link to report: How Is Land in the United States Used? A Focus on Agricultural Land

By Cynthia Nickerson and Allison Borchers, Economic Research Service, USDA, Mar 1, 2012


Updated Data: Major Land Use

By Scott Callahan, Economic Research Service, USDA, April 16, 2020


Communicating Better to the Public – Protest

German Bundestag accused of having passed a Covid-19 enabling law

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 21, 2020

Expanding the Orthodoxy

Montreal Protocol Continues Process of Morphing Into A Climate Treaty

By Ben Lieberman, CEI, Nov 20, 2020


Red Cross claims of increasing climate disasters is “grossly misleading”

Press Release, GWPF, Nov 20, 2020

Red Cross claims of increasing climate disasters is “grossly misleading”

Link to report: World Disasters Report 2020: Come Heat or High Water: Tackling the humanitarian impacts of the climate crisis together.

By Staff, International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies,


Tiny homes to fix the climate crisis, UN report suggests

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 19, 2020

Tiny homes to fix the climate crisis, UN report suggests

(SEPP Comment: For others, not for them!)

Questioning European Green

The fatal flaw in Boris’s ten point carbon plan

By Ross Clark, The Spectator, Nov 18, 2020


Lord Lawson criticises Prime Minister Johnson for being ‘economically illiterate’

By Staff, GWPF, Nov 18, 2020

Lord Lawson criticises Prime Minister Johnson for being ‘economically illiterate’

“If the Government were trying to damage the economy they couldn’t be doing it better.

More Boris disasters waiting to happen

By Andrew Montford, The Conservative Woman, Nov 18, 2020

More Boris disasters waiting to happen

The German transformation to green energies will fail due to wind power

By Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt, Die kalte Sonne, (German text translated/edited/subheadings by P. Gosselin), No Tricks Zone, Nov 17, 2020

Pie In The Sky…Germany’s Green Energy Scheme Will Fail From “Astronomical Cost”, Says Energy Expert

Questioning Green Elsewhere

Millions in Africa Being Sacrificed to Extreme Poverty, Premature Death on Altar of ‘Green Energy’

By Gregory Wrightstone, The Daily Signal, Nov 17, 2020

‘Renewable Energy’ and its Four Icebergs

By Rafe Champion, Quadrant, Nov 20, 2020

(SEPP Comment: Isn’t renewable unsinkable?)

Funding Issues

Bezos makes first donations from $10 billion Earth Fund

By Rebecca Beitsch, The Hill, Nov 16, 2020


Jeff Bezos announces first beneficiaries of his $10 billion climate fund

Unlike other tech giants with climate change pledges, Bezos focuses on funding advocacy groups

By Jastine Calma, The Verge, Nov 16, 2020


The Political Games Continue

Lawmakers condemn Trump’s ‘destabilizing’ and ‘politicizing’ moves on climate assessment

By Rebecca Beitsch, The Hill, Nov 19, 2020


“’We cannot stand by and tolerate the suppression, censorship, and manipulation of climate science,’ lawmakers wrote in the letter spearheaded by Rep. Suzanne Bonamici (D-Ore.).”

(SEPP Comment: Does this apply to handling physical evidence?)

Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes

Road Charging Moves Closer

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 16, 2020

UK plans to charge motorists for every mile they drive in switch to electric cars

By Staff, Daily Mail, Via GWPF, Nov 16, 2020

Subsidies and Mandates Forever

‘Is it time for the political fall of renewable energy?’ (Peacock in the Houston Chronicle)

By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, Nov 18, 2020

TCI (Transportation and Climate Initiative): Taxing the Poor to Benefit the Rich

By Steve Haner, Bacon’s Rebellion, Nov 20, 2020 (H/t WUWT)

Energy Issues – Non-US

Authoritarian, elitist, anti-motorist.. and eye-wateringly expensive: Drivers, business and economists slam PM’s ‘Stalinist’ plan to ban new petrol and diesel vehicles by 2030 – a date that was NOT in Tory manifesto – and his ten-point green revolution

By James Tapsfield and Mark Duell, Daily Mail, Nov 19, 2020


The Impact Of EVs On Grid Capacity

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 20, 2020

“In reality, although the average car might only need an hour or two charge each night, most drivers will start charging up in a small band of time, with most cars being charged between 6pm and 8pm. Under this scenario, and assuming half of the nation’s cars on charge at this time, we would need capacity of 112 GW. (16 million cars at 7 KW)”

Aurora’s Blackout Analysis

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 14, 2020

Link to summary: Initial analysis and thoughts on the power outages on 9th

August (2019)

By Staff, Aurora Energy Research, Nov 2020

Energy Issues — US

Michigan Governor Moves to Prevent Great Lakes Oil Spill by Shutting Down Aging Pipeline

By Olivia Rosane, EcoWatch, Nov 16, 2020


(SEPP Comment: Forcing the shut-down of an old pipeline to prevent the construction of a new one?)

Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?

Study reveals how to improve natural gas production in shale

By Staff Writers, Los Alamos NM (SPX), Nov 13, 2020


Link to paper: Reduced methane recovery at high pressure due to methane trapping in shale nanopores

By Chelsea W. Neil, et al. Nature Communications, Nov 10, 2020


Sempra to build LNG export facility in Baja

By Rob Nikolewski, San Diego Union-Tribune, Nov 17, 2020


(SEPP Comment: Does not discuss expected source of the Natural Gas, probably Texas and New Mexico.)

Russia Pushes Ahead With Plans to Expand Gas Supplies To Asia

By Vusala Abbasova, Caspian News, Oct 31, 2020 (H/t GWPF)


Die Hurrikansaison 2020 hat die GOM-Ölproduktion um über 40 Millionen Barrel gekürzt

By David Middleton, WUWT, Nov 18, 2020

Return of King Coal?

CO2 Coalition: Clean Coal Technology Can Fight Energy Poverty in Africa

By David Middleton, WUWT, Nov 17, 2020

Link to paper: New-tech American Coal-fired Electricity for Africa: Clean Air, Indoors and Out

By Kathleen White, et al. CO2 Coalition, Nov 2020

From the paper: “There is a strong consensus among power analysts that Africa’s cheap, abundant, easily transportable coal will continue to be used on a large scale for electricity. Without modern “scrubbing” and other technologies to neutralize pollutants, Africa could be trading one health crisis for another.”

How Fast Will The Electric Industry Exit Coal?

By Leonard Hyman & William Tilles, Oil Price.com, Nov 17, 2020


Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind

Cultural motivations for wind and solar renewables deployment

By Andy West, Climate Etc. Nov 19, 2020

“Right here at Climate Etc, the first of the excellent analyses by ‘Planning Engineer’ (on his retirement revealed to be Russ Schussler, ex-VP of Transmission Planning at Georgia Transmission Corporations), laudably highlighted the limitation of technical analyses with his very first line: ‘Power System Planners do not have the expertise or knowledge to say whether or not the benefits of reducing carbon emissions are worth the costs. However they should be respected as experts for obtaining a better understanding of what the implications and costs of such programs are.’”

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other

Report: In retrospect, the burning of wood in district heating plants has resulted in climate saving

A new report from the University of Copenhagen shows that the burning of wood is significantly more climate friendly than coal and slightly more climate friendly than (natural gas over the long run.)

News Release, Faculty of Science – University of Copenhagen, Nov 17, 2020


(SEPP Comment: And when the trees are gone? Wood burning and wood use virtually eliminated the forests on the East Coast of the US, until coal replaced wood.)

Step Aside, Green Hydrogen, There’s a New, Cleaner Color in Town

By Whitaker B. Irvin, Jr., Real Clear Energy, Nov 20, 2020


Deal revives plan for removal of dams on Klamath River to save salmon

By Gillian Flaccus, AP, Nov 17, 2020


From Klamath River Project, PacifiCorp:


“PacifiCorp’s 169-megawatt (MW) Klamath Hydroelectric Project (FERC No. 2082) is located in a predominantly rural area in southern Oregon. The project generates approximately 716 gigawatt-hours of emissions-free electricity on an annual basis – enough power to supply the energy needs of approximately 70,000 households.”

“It is bleak, but I want to have hope that with dam removal and with all the prayers that we’ve been sending up all these years, salmon could come back. If we just give them a chance, they will,” said Chook-Chook Hillman, a Karuk tribal member fighting for dam removal. “If you provide a good place for salmon, they’ll always come home.”

(SEPP Comment: Salmon spawning in rivers has not come back on the East Coast.)

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles

New CEI Paper Asks: Would More Electric Vehicles be Good for the Environment?

By Ben Lieberman, CEI, Nov 17, 2020


Link to paper: Would More Electric Vehicles be Good for the Environment?

By Ben Lieberman, CEI, November 20202

Electric cars are good fun for wealthy virtue signallers, but a dreadful way to save the planet

By Bjorn Lomborg, Via Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 20, 2020

No Gasoline Cars after 2035

By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Nov 17, 2020

California Dreaming

California Governor Apologises for Breaching his Own Covid-19 Lockdown Rules

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 18, 2020

Nolte: Photos Call Into Question Newsom’s ‘Outdoor French Laundry Party

By John Nolte, Breitbart, Nov 18, 2020


Health, Energy, and Climate

Meanwhile in the real world

By Paul Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 18, 2020

“But indirectly it has a lot to do with the situation, because the Post story is a tale of real pollution causing real misery and illness and requiring real and expensive solutions. Instead of which the best and brightest want the Indian government like others to spend their time on money fighting carbon “pollution’ and in the process leaving many of their people too poor to afford efficient indoor heating and cooking, proper farm machinery and the other things essential to ridding Delhi of the choking smog you no longer find in Western cities from London to Los Angeles.”

Other Scientific News

Claim: The USA’s Largest Radio Observatory is on the Verge of Structural Collapse

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 18, 2020


Josh 2021

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 15, 2020

(SEPP Comment: How to obtain the 2021 calendar with Josh cartoons.)

Maldives "sink" forests, pave beaches, build four new airports for future tourism!

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Nov 20, 2020

(SEPP Comment: No more underwater cabinet meetings?)

Donegal: Peat landslide linked to wind farm raised in Dáil

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 18, 2020

“So much for that wonderful ‘Green Energy’!”

“The river flows into the Foyle catchment which has EU protection as an important salmon habitat.” (In Northern Ireland)


1. California, Love It and Leave It

Bad policy has made the state unlivable, so I moved my family and my venture-capital firm to Texas.

By Joe Lonsdale, WSJ, Nov 15, 2020


TWTW Summary: The general partner at the venture-capital firm 8VC writes:

“I love California, but I had to leave. I grew up in Fremont, attended Stanford, and have spent most of my adult life in the San Francisco Bay Area, founding technology companies like Palantir and Addepar and investing in many others. In 2011 I founded 8VC, a venture-capital firm that today manages more than $3.6 billion in committed capital. Few top venture capitalists consider living anywhere other than California and a handful of global financial centers, but I am moving myself and dozens of my 8VC colleagues to a new land of opportunity: Texas.

“The harsh truth is that California has fallen into disrepair. Bad policies discourage business and innovation, stifle opportunity and make life in major cities ugly and unpleasant.

“Forty years ago my parents came to California because you could accomplish anything in the Golden State. Government policy facilitated the entrepreneurial spirit. Dreamers and doers could thrive. The burst of activity in tech, finance, medicine, energy and many other industries lasted for decades. But now a state like Texas provides these opportunities without the problems and baggage California has accumulated. Let me mention a few personal examples:

“• Public safety. Ill-conceived criminal-justice reforms and radical district attorneys are taking a toll on urban life. Three of my colleagues’ wives have been harassed and chased by derelicts in San Francisco’s streets, which are littered with needles and human waste. My wife is afraid to walk around the city with our young daughters. Police often don’t even respond to harassment and property crime, which has surged; San Francisco’s property-crime rate is now the nation’s highest.

“• Electricity. The wildfire smoke that has blanketed California cities is one thing. But power outages, which left us stressed about spoiling breast milk for our daughter, are the direct result of California government incompetence. Last year the state had 25,000 blackouts, and this year has been even worse. The electricity turns on and off, as in Third World countries. Meanwhile, Texas has its own energy grid, with a plentiful and diverse supply. It’s nice to turn on the lights whenever we want.

“• Responsiveness. In the early days of the pandemic in March, 8VC entreated the mayor of San Francisco and city staff to clarify rules to allow our critical employees to work on accelerating Covid-19 testing and the development of therapeutics. The city didn’t deign to respond. Government officials in Texas, by contrast, care about business. They return calls.

“• Housing. California’s restrictive zoning laws make it nearly impossible for many essential low- and middle-income workers to live anywhere near major cities. In Texas, permissive zoning allows every member of our staff to live close to work and spend time with friends and family instead of enduring grueling commutes.

“That’s not all. The California government is beholden to public-employee unions and spending is out of control. A broken environmental review process means it takes a decade of paying lawyers to build anything. Legislation makes it impossible for businesses to hire contractors without an exemption—granted by friends in the legislature, as with the music industry, or won by spending hundreds of millions on a referendum, as gig-economy companies with drivers just did. This isn’t how business is done in developed countries.

“Politics in the state is in many ways closed off to different ideas. We grew weary of California’s intolerant far left, which would rather demonize opponents than discuss honest differences of opinion.

“I will continue investing in Silicon Valley startups and fighting to help the state. I’m optimistic that over the long run, California can return to the values that once made it the dynamic center of global technology entrepreneurship. But until priorities change, the state will keep losing its top builders and creators.

“In 2000 or 2010, it made sense to build in San Francisco. That’s where all the talent was, but not anymore. Except for a few concentrated parts of advanced biotech and software infrastructure technology, talented people are building top technology firms all over the country. This disaggregation of talent will spread prosperity across the U.S. Some of my most prolific entrepreneurial friends from California have moved with us here to Texas. Others have left for Miami, Nashville, Las Vegas and other great American cities. Six of our portfolio companies are already based in Austin and employ hundreds of people.

“Our investments follow the talent. We’re betting that the future of America is going to be built in the middle of the country, in places with good government and a reasonable cost of living. In other words, places like Texas.

“My firm has a motto: ‘The world is broken, let’s fix it.’ We invest in technologies and people who will transform major industries and improve the lives of millions. It’s tragic that California is no longer hospitable to that mission, but beautiful that Texas is. Our job as entrepreneurs and investors is to build the future, and I know of no better place to do so than Texas.”


2. Colorado Targets Oil and Gas

Regulators disparage fossil fuels as they ready sweeping new rules.

Editorial, WSJ, Nov 20, 2020


TWTW Summary: In demonstrating that in a regulatory state the regulators are more important that the public, the editorial states:

“Colorado regulators are preparing to approve sweeping new restrictions on oil and gas companies on Monday. Meanwhile, the companies received an unintended glimpse this week of how their regulators hold them in contempt.

“For years state law required the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission to strike a balance between energy development and protecting the environment and the public. But Democrats tipped the scales against oil and gas last year with Senate Bill 181.

“The new legislation installed professional regulators on the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission while reducing the number of energy representatives. Under the new statute, the commission’s mission is no longer to “foster” energy development but to “regulate” it to protect the environment, wildlife and public health, safety and welfare.

“On Monday the regulators are expected to finalize new restrictions as part of a broader overhaul of Colorado’s rules on energy development. Most significant is a proposal to restrict new energy development within 2,000 feet of schools, homes and other buildings, and another that would impose setbacks near waterways and wildlife. This could put millions of acres of Colorado land off limits for fracking. The commission says oil and gas companies could seek waivers in some circumstances, but there’s no guarantee they’d be granted. Under the new regulatory regime, that would be left to regulators’ discretion.

“Colorado voters rejected a similar scheme in 2018 when they voted down Prop. 112, which would have imposed a 2,500-foot setback on energy development. That ballot measure would have put 85% of all non-federal land off limits, and it would also have cost up to $1.1 billion in lost annual tax revenue by 2030, according to an analysis from the Common Sense Policy Roundtable, reviewed by faculty from the Colorado School of Mines. Coloradans weren’t willing to bear these costs.

“Never mind. The commission is now preparing to vote on another version of the same idea, and it hasn’t bothered to analyze the potential harm to jobs or the Colorado economy. That’s no small shortcoming in a state that ranked seventh in the U.S. for energy production in 2018. Some 100,000 residents depend on the industry for their livelihoods.

“The Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission added insult to injury with a revealing internet blunder that unfolded Sunday. Its staffers were tinkering with a new online filing system and accidentally sent oil and gas developers a test email, which included “disparaging fake company names,” the Denver Post reported. The snark included such subtle epithets as “Snake Oil Inc,” “Bad Oil and Gas,” and “The Lorax.”

“Commission spokeswoman Megan Castle apologized for the insults and said it “doesn’t demonstrate who we are as individuals or an organization.” But it sure does demonstrate what regulatory staffers think about the industry that employs so many of their fellow citizens.”

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