Guest essay by Eric Worrall
How closely can scientists adjust us to global warming bogeyman temperature of 1.5 ° C without people realizing it's not that big of a deal?
The earth may be even closer to 1.5 ° C of global warming than we thought
ENVIRONMENT December 15, 2020
By Adam Vaughan
Global carbon emissions may have warmed the earth 18 percent more than previously thought, increasing the prospect that the world will have less time than expected to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement and avoid catastrophic climate change.
The global mean temperature is believed to have increased 1.07 ° C since the industrial revolution, compared to an earlier estimate of 0.91 ° C.. This update brings all three major temperature records in the world in line, suggesting that the actual temperature rise is at the high end of the previous ranges.
"Climate change hasn't suddenly gotten worse. It's just our assessment of how much warming has improved," said Tim Osborn of the University of East Anglia, UK, who wrote an article today with colleagues from the Met Office on the fifth update of the Published data saved as Hadley Center Climatic Research Unit (HadCRUT5) temperature.
Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2262953-earth-may-be-even-closer-to-1-5c-of-global-warming-than-we-thought/
The CSIRO plays even closer to the fire. According to CSIRO, Australia is even closer to the dreaded climate apocalypse at 1.5 ° C than the world in general.
AUSTRALIAN CLIMATE TRENDS
The Bureau of Meteorology and other science agencies use a range of atmospheric, terrestrial, and marine sensors to track climate trends.
For example, the data set "Australian Climate Observations Reference Network – Surface Air Temperature" is based on a network of over 100 stations, with data for more than half available from 1910 onwards.
The following information is taken from the 2020 Climate State Report, produced every two years by CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology.
The Australian climate has warmed since national records began in 1910, with most warming occurring since 1950. Australia's mean surface air temperature has increased by more than 1.4 ° C since 1910. Every decade since 1950 has been warmer than its predecessor. Australia's warmest year on record was 2019, and the seven years from 2013 to 2019 all belong to the nine warmest years. This long-term warming trend means that most years are now warmer than almost all seen in the 20th century. When relatively cooler years occur, it is because natural drivers that typically cool the Australian climate, like La Niña, partially offset the background warming trend.
Read more: https://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/climate-campus/australian-climate-change/australian-trends/
All of this is a difficult dilemma for climate researchers.
If the adjusted temperatures keep rising at their current pace, they will pretty soon break the milestones on the magic line of death and people will wonder what the big deal was.
But when the adjusted temperature series flatten out, skeptics will point and laugh, and even mainstream media personalities might be talking about a new hiatus.
Thankfully, there are still a few years to go before the crisis so today's oldest scientists will all safely retire long before this aspect of global warming fear hits fans.